Bellring Brands Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

BRBR Stock  USD 77.02  1.58  2.01%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bellring Brands LLC on the next trading day is expected to be 79.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.24. Bellring Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Bellring Brands' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Bellring Brands' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Bellring Brands fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Bellring Brands' Inventory Turnover is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 11/25/2024, Receivables Turnover is likely to grow to 11.56, while Payables Turnover is likely to drop 8.30. . As of 11/25/2024, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 199.8 M, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 71.1 M.

Bellring Brands Cash Forecast

Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Bellring Brands' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2018-09-30
Previous Quarter
72.6 M
Current Value
71.1 M
Quarterly Volatility
34.6 M
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Bellring Brands is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Bellring Brands LLC value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Bellring Brands Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bellring Brands LLC on the next trading day is expected to be 79.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59, mean absolute percentage error of 0.56, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.24.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bellring Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bellring Brands' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bellring Brands Stock Forecast Pattern

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Bellring Brands Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bellring Brands' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bellring Brands' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 78.13 and 80.44, respectively. We have considered Bellring Brands' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
77.02
79.29
Expected Value
80.44
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bellring Brands stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bellring Brands stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.5375
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.5942
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.009
SAESum of the absolute errors36.244
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Bellring Brands LLC. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Bellring Brands. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Bellring Brands

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bellring Brands LLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
78.4579.5680.67
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
64.6965.8086.46
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
68.5673.7778.98
Details
15 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
41.2845.3650.35
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bellring Brands. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bellring Brands' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bellring Brands' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Bellring Brands LLC.

Other Forecasting Options for Bellring Brands

For every potential investor in Bellring, whether a beginner or expert, Bellring Brands' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bellring Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bellring. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bellring Brands' price trends.

View Bellring Brands Related Equities

 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bellring Brands LLC Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bellring Brands' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bellring Brands' current price.

Bellring Brands Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bellring Brands stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bellring Brands shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bellring Brands stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bellring Brands LLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bellring Brands Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bellring Brands' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bellring Brands' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bellring stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Bellring Brands

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Bellring Brands position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Bellring Brands will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Bellring Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Bellring Brands could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Bellring Brands when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Bellring Brands - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Bellring Brands LLC to buy it.
The correlation of Bellring Brands is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Bellring Brands moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Bellring Brands LLC moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bellring Brands can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Bellring Stock Analysis

When running Bellring Brands' price analysis, check to measure Bellring Brands' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bellring Brands is operating at the current time. Most of Bellring Brands' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bellring Brands' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bellring Brands' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bellring Brands to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.