Dutch Bros Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BROS Stock | USD 60.64 0.54 0.88% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Dutch Bros on the next trading day is expected to be 61.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 74.88. Dutch Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength indicator of Dutch Bros' share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.24 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.1124 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.6776 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.8962 | Wall Street Target Price 76.8421 |
Using Dutch Bros hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Dutch Bros from the perspective of Dutch Bros response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Dutch Bros using Dutch Bros' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Dutch using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Dutch Bros' stock price.
Dutch Bros Short Interest
An investor who is long Dutch Bros may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Dutch Bros and may potentially protect profits, hedge Dutch Bros with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 61.7346 | Short Percent 0.1064 | Short Ratio 4.41 | Shares Short Prior Month 13.7 M | 50 Day MA 59.4964 |
Dutch Bros Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Dutch Bros' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Dutch. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Dutch can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Dutch Bros. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Dutch Bros Implied Volatility | 0.59 |
Dutch Bros' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Dutch Bros stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Dutch Bros' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Dutch Bros stock will not fluctuate a lot when Dutch Bros' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Dutch Bros on the next trading day is expected to be 61.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 74.88. Dutch Bros after-hype prediction price | USD 60.63 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dutch Bros to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Dutch contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Dutch Bros will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0369% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Dutch Bros trading at USD 60.64, that is roughly USD 0.0224 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Dutch Bros' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Dutch Bros options at the current volatility level of 0.59%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Dutch Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Dutch Bros' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Dutch Bros' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Dutch Bros stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Dutch Bros' open interest, investors have to compare it to Dutch Bros' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Dutch Bros is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Dutch. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Dutch Bros Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Dutch price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Dutch using various technical indicators. When you analyze Dutch charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Dutch Bros' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2020-03-31 | Previous Quarter 254.4 M | Current Value 267.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 124.4 M |
Dutch Bros Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Dutch Bros on the next trading day is expected to be 61.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.23, mean absolute percentage error of 2.53, and the sum of the absolute errors of 74.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dutch Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dutch Bros' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Dutch Bros Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Dutch Bros | Dutch Bros Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Dutch Bros Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Dutch Bros' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dutch Bros' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 59.20 and 64.45, respectively. We have considered Dutch Bros' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dutch Bros stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dutch Bros stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.0398 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2276 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0213 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 74.8825 |
Predictive Modules for Dutch Bros
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dutch Bros. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Dutch Bros After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Dutch Bros at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Dutch Bros or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Dutch Bros, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Dutch Bros Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Dutch Bros' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Dutch Bros' historical news coverage. Dutch Bros' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 58.01 and 63.25, respectively. We have considered Dutch Bros' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Dutch Bros is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Dutch Bros is based on 3 months time horizon.
Dutch Bros Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Dutch Bros is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Dutch Bros backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Dutch Bros, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 2.62 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
60.64 | 60.63 | 0.02 |
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Dutch Bros Hype Timeline
Dutch Bros is currently traded for 60.64. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Dutch is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 60.63. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.05%. The volatility of related hype on Dutch Bros is about 2360.36%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 60.63. About 93.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dutch Bros to cross-verify your projections.Dutch Bros Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Dutch Bros' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Dutch Bros' future price movements. Getting to know how Dutch Bros' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Dutch Bros may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MGM | MGM Resorts International | (0.05) | 8 per month | 1.60 | 0.02 | 3.65 | (2.92) | 10.35 | |
| TXRH | Texas Roadhouse | 3.15 | 8 per month | 1.45 | 0.02 | 2.78 | (2.47) | 8.07 | |
| VIPS | Vipshop Holdings Limited | (1.29) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.00 | (3.66) | 13.81 | |
| FIVE | Five Below | (2.43) | 14 per month | 1.52 | 0.13 | 3.69 | (2.78) | 7.41 | |
| GIL | Gildan Activewear | 1.04 | 10 per month | 1.42 | 0.04 | 3.72 | (2.65) | 8.74 | |
| GAP | The Gap | 0.81 | 11 per month | 1.64 | 0.11 | 6.37 | (2.84) | 12.19 | |
| ALV | Autoliv | (1.67) | 8 per month | 1.29 | 0.01 | 2.85 | (2.47) | 6.91 | |
| BWA | BorgWarner | (0.15) | 9 per month | 1.61 | 0.05 | 3.51 | (2.90) | 8.11 | |
| MMYT | MakeMyTrip Limited | (0.40) | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 3.14 | (4.68) | 18.31 | |
| CAVA | CAVA Group | (0.12) | 10 per month | 3.05 | 0.01 | 5.11 | (4.22) | 16.56 |
Other Forecasting Options for Dutch Bros
For every potential investor in Dutch, whether a beginner or expert, Dutch Bros' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dutch Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dutch. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dutch Bros' price trends.Dutch Bros Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dutch Bros stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dutch Bros could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dutch Bros by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Dutch Bros Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dutch Bros stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dutch Bros shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dutch Bros stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Dutch Bros entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 60.64 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 60.64 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.27) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.54) |
Dutch Bros Risk Indicators
The analysis of Dutch Bros' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dutch Bros' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dutch stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.96 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.95 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.63 | |||
| Variance | 6.92 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.59 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.81 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.33) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Dutch Bros
The number of cover stories for Dutch Bros depends on current market conditions and Dutch Bros' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Dutch Bros is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Dutch Bros' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Dutch Bros Short Properties
Dutch Bros' future price predictability will typically decrease when Dutch Bros' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Dutch Bros often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Dutch Bros' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dutch Bros' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 114.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 293.4 M |
Additional Tools for Dutch Stock Analysis
When running Dutch Bros' price analysis, check to measure Dutch Bros' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dutch Bros is operating at the current time. Most of Dutch Bros' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dutch Bros' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dutch Bros' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dutch Bros to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.