Bitcoin Crypto Coin Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BTC Crypto | USD 97,765 1,246 1.26% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bitcoin on the next trading day is expected to be 97,765 with a mean absolute deviation of 1,501 and the sum of the absolute errors of 90,081. Bitcoin Crypto Coin Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bitcoin crypto prices and determine the direction of Bitcoin's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bitcoin's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Bitcoin |
Bitcoin Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bitcoin on the next trading day is expected to be 97,765 with a mean absolute deviation of 1,501, mean absolute percentage error of 5,959,580, and the sum of the absolute errors of 90,081.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bitcoin Crypto Coin prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bitcoin's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bitcoin Crypto Coin Forecast Pattern
Bitcoin Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bitcoin's Crypto Coin value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bitcoin's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 97,762 and 97,768, respectively. We have considered Bitcoin's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bitcoin crypto coin data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bitcoin crypto coin, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 131.8731 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -671.3867 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1501.342 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0209 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 90080.52 |
Predictive Modules for Bitcoin
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bitcoin. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the crypto coin market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the crypto coin market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Bitcoin
For every potential investor in Bitcoin, whether a beginner or expert, Bitcoin's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bitcoin Crypto Coin price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bitcoin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bitcoin's price trends.Bitcoin Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bitcoin crypto coin to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bitcoin could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bitcoin by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bitcoin Technical and Predictive Analytics
The crypto coin market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bitcoin's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bitcoin's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Bitcoin Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bitcoin crypto coin reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bitcoin shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bitcoin crypto coin market strength indicators, traders can identify Bitcoin entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0182 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.69) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 98121.56 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 98002.72 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1804.65 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (979.44) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1,246) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 73.97 |
Bitcoin Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bitcoin's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bitcoin's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bitcoin crypto coin prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.17 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.02 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.36 | |||
| Variance | 11.31 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.31 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.09 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.46) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Bitcoin offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Bitcoin's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Bitcoin Crypto.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bitcoin to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.