Grayscale Bitcoin Etf Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BTC Etf | USD 39.52 0.06 0.15% |
Grayscale Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Grayscale Bitcoin stock prices and determine the direction of Grayscale Bitcoin Mini's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Grayscale Bitcoin's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength momentum indicator of Grayscale Bitcoin's share price is below 20 suggesting that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Grayscale Bitcoin hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Grayscale Bitcoin Mini from the perspective of Grayscale Bitcoin response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Grayscale Bitcoin using Grayscale Bitcoin's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Grayscale using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Grayscale Bitcoin's stock price.
Grayscale Bitcoin Implied Volatility | 0.52 |
Grayscale Bitcoin's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Grayscale Bitcoin Mini stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Grayscale Bitcoin's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Grayscale Bitcoin stock will not fluctuate a lot when Grayscale Bitcoin's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Grayscale Bitcoin Mini on the next trading day is expected to be 39.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95 and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.81. Grayscale Bitcoin after-hype prediction price | USD 39.66 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Grayscale contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Grayscale Bitcoin Mini will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0325% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Grayscale Bitcoin trading at USD 39.52, that is roughly USD 0.0128 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Grayscale Bitcoin's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Grayscale Bitcoin Mini options at the current volatility level of 0.52%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Grayscale Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Grayscale Bitcoin's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Grayscale Bitcoin's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Grayscale Bitcoin stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Grayscale Bitcoin's open interest, investors have to compare it to Grayscale Bitcoin's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Grayscale Bitcoin is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Grayscale. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Grayscale Bitcoin Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Grayscale price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Grayscale using various technical indicators. When you analyze Grayscale charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Grayscale Bitcoin Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Grayscale Bitcoin Mini on the next trading day is expected to be 39.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95, mean absolute percentage error of 1.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.81.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Grayscale Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Grayscale Bitcoin's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Grayscale Bitcoin Etf Forecast Pattern
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Grayscale Bitcoin Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Grayscale Bitcoin's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Grayscale Bitcoin's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 36.68 and 42.36, respectively. We have considered Grayscale Bitcoin's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Grayscale Bitcoin etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Grayscale Bitcoin etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.6063 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1575 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9468 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0229 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 56.81 |
Predictive Modules for Grayscale Bitcoin
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grayscale Bitcoin Mini. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Grayscale Bitcoin's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Grayscale Bitcoin After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Grayscale Bitcoin at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Grayscale Bitcoin or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Grayscale Bitcoin, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Grayscale Bitcoin Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Grayscale Bitcoin's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Grayscale Bitcoin's historical news coverage. Grayscale Bitcoin's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 36.82 and 42.50, respectively. We have considered Grayscale Bitcoin's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Grayscale Bitcoin is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Grayscale Bitcoin Mini is based on 3 months time horizon.
Grayscale Bitcoin Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Grayscale Bitcoin is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Grayscale Bitcoin backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Grayscale Bitcoin, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.31 | 2.84 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 5 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
39.52 | 39.66 | 0.20 |
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Grayscale Bitcoin Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January Grayscale Bitcoin Mini is traded for 39.52. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Grayscale is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 39.66 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.2%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.31%. The volatility of related hype on Grayscale Bitcoin is about 16705.88%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 39.53. The company reported the last year's revenue of 40.4 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 4.48 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grayscale Bitcoin to cross-verify your projections.Grayscale Bitcoin Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Grayscale Bitcoin's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Grayscale Bitcoin's future price movements. Getting to know how Grayscale Bitcoin's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Grayscale Bitcoin may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FIFGX | Fidelity Sai Inflationfocused | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.69 | 0.1 | 1.67 | (1.35) | 3.67 | |
| QQQI | NEOS Nasdaq 100 | (0.52) | 6 per month | 0.94 | (0.04) | 1.20 | (1.70) | 4.27 | |
| FASIX | Fidelity Asset Manager | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.10 | (0.24) | 0.35 | (0.35) | 0.91 | |
| BOND | PIMCO Active Bond | (0.08) | 8 per month | 0.17 | (0.37) | 0.27 | (0.34) | 0.73 | |
| FFVFX | Fidelity Freedom 2015 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.20 | (0.14) | 0.50 | (0.50) | 1.24 | |
| VCRB | Vanguard Core Bond | 0.13 | 4 per month | 0.18 | (0.43) | 0.28 | (0.28) | 0.76 | |
| FDCAX | Fidelity Capital Appreciation | 0.25 | 3 per month | 0.69 | 0.14 | 1.35 | (1.54) | 7.71 | |
| EQPGX | Fidelity Advisor Equity | 0.25 | 8 per month | 1.14 | (0.05) | 1.49 | (2.12) | 4.84 | |
| JBND | JP Morgan Exchange Traded | (0.01) | 7 per month | 0.19 | (0.38) | 0.30 | (0.37) | 0.82 | |
| JGLO | JPMorgan Global Select | 0.15 | 2 per month | 0.71 | (0.07) | 0.83 | (1.14) | 3.39 |
Other Forecasting Options for Grayscale Bitcoin
For every potential investor in Grayscale, whether a beginner or expert, Grayscale Bitcoin's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Grayscale Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Grayscale. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Grayscale Bitcoin's price trends.Grayscale Bitcoin Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Grayscale Bitcoin etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Grayscale Bitcoin could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Grayscale Bitcoin by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Grayscale Bitcoin Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Grayscale Bitcoin etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Grayscale Bitcoin shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Grayscale Bitcoin etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Grayscale Bitcoin Mini entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Grayscale Bitcoin Risk Indicators
The analysis of Grayscale Bitcoin's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Grayscale Bitcoin's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting grayscale etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.82 | |||
| Variance | 7.98 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Grayscale Bitcoin
The number of cover stories for Grayscale Bitcoin depends on current market conditions and Grayscale Bitcoin's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Grayscale Bitcoin is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Grayscale Bitcoin's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grayscale Bitcoin to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.
The market value of Grayscale Bitcoin Mini is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Grayscale that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Grayscale Bitcoin's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Grayscale Bitcoin's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Grayscale Bitcoin's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Grayscale Bitcoin's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Grayscale Bitcoin's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Grayscale Bitcoin is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Grayscale Bitcoin's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.