Peabody Energy Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

BTU Stock  USD 25.99  1.42  5.18%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Peabody Energy Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 27.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.14. Peabody Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
At this time, Peabody Energy's Inventory Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Receivables Turnover is likely to gain to 15.36 in 2024, whereas Payables Turnover is likely to drop 8.66 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to gain to about 173.4 M in 2024. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to gain to about 1.2 B in 2024.
Peabody Energy polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Peabody Energy Corp as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Peabody Energy Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Peabody Energy Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 27.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.02, mean absolute percentage error of 1.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.14.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Peabody Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Peabody Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Peabody Energy Stock Forecast Pattern

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Peabody Energy Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Peabody Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Peabody Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.39 and 29.88, respectively. We have considered Peabody Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
25.99
27.13
Expected Value
29.88
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Peabody Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Peabody Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.3362
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.0184
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0409
SAESum of the absolute errors63.14
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Peabody Energy historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Peabody Energy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Peabody Energy Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Peabody Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
23.1225.8528.58
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
24.6327.3630.09
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
25.6227.1728.72
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
26.5729.2032.41
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Peabody Energy

For every potential investor in Peabody, whether a beginner or expert, Peabody Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Peabody Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Peabody. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Peabody Energy's price trends.

Peabody Energy Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Peabody Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Peabody Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Peabody Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Peabody Energy Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Peabody Energy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Peabody Energy's current price.

Peabody Energy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Peabody Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Peabody Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Peabody Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Peabody Energy Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Peabody Energy Risk Indicators

The analysis of Peabody Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Peabody Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting peabody stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

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Additional Tools for Peabody Stock Analysis

When running Peabody Energy's price analysis, check to measure Peabody Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Peabody Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Peabody Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Peabody Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Peabody Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Peabody Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.