Boston Properties Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

BXP Stock  USD 65.40  0.53  0.80%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Boston Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 64.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.60. Boston Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Boston Properties' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Boston Properties' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Boston Properties fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength index (RSI) of Boston Properties' share price is approaching 39 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Boston Properties, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 39

 Sell Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Boston Properties' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Boston Properties, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Boston Properties' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.105
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.51
EPS Estimate Current Year
0.7164
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.0467
Wall Street Target Price
78
Using Boston Properties hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Boston Properties from the perspective of Boston Properties response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Boston Properties using Boston Properties' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Boston using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Boston Properties' stock price.

Boston Properties Short Interest

An investor who is long Boston Properties may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Boston Properties and may potentially protect profits, hedge Boston Properties with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
69.33
Short Percent
0.094
Short Ratio
8.62
Shares Short Prior Month
10.2 M
50 Day MA
69.5288

Boston Properties Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Boston Properties' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Boston. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Boston can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Boston Properties. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.

Boston Properties Implied Volatility

    
  0.33  
Boston Properties' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Boston Properties stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Boston Properties' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Boston Properties stock will not fluctuate a lot when Boston Properties' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Boston Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 64.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.60.

Boston Properties after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 65.45  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Boston Properties to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Boston Stock, please use our How to Invest in Boston Properties guide.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Boston contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Boston Properties will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0206% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Boston Properties trading at USD 65.4, that is roughly USD 0.0135 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Boston Properties' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Boston Properties options at the current volatility level of 0.33%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Boston Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Boston Properties' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Boston Properties' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Boston Properties stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Boston Properties' open interest, investors have to compare it to Boston Properties' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Boston Properties is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Boston. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Boston Properties Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Boston price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Boston using various technical indicators. When you analyze Boston charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

Boston Properties Cash Forecast

Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Boston Properties' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1997-06-30
Previous Quarter
447 M
Current Value
861.1 M
Quarterly Volatility
589.3 M
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Boston Properties is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Boston Properties value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Boston Properties Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Boston Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 64.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83, mean absolute percentage error of 1.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.60.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Boston Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Boston Properties' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Boston Properties Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Boston PropertiesBoston Properties Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Boston Properties Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Boston Properties' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Boston Properties' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 63.50 and 66.35, respectively. We have considered Boston Properties' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
65.40
64.93
Expected Value
66.35
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Boston Properties stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Boston Properties stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.166
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.8295
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0119
SAESum of the absolute errors50.5983
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Boston Properties. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Boston Properties. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Boston Properties

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Boston Properties. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Boston Properties' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
64.0365.4566.87
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
58.8672.7574.17
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
65.4167.4869.55
Details
22 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
70.9878.0086.58
Details

Boston Properties After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Boston Properties at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Boston Properties or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Boston Properties, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Boston Properties Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Boston Properties' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Boston Properties' historical news coverage. Boston Properties' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 64.03 and 66.87, respectively. We have considered Boston Properties' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
65.40
65.45
After-hype Price
66.87
Upside
Boston Properties is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Boston Properties is based on 3 months time horizon.

Boston Properties Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Boston Properties is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Boston Properties backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Boston Properties, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.19 
1.43
  0.09 
  0.03 
16 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 16 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
65.40
65.45
0.08 
310.87  
Notes

Boston Properties Hype Timeline

On the 23rd of January Boston Properties is traded for 65.40. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Boston is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 65.45 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Boston Properties is about 899.37%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 65.43. The company reported the last year's revenue of 3.41 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 84.19 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.07 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 16 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Boston Properties to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Boston Stock, please use our How to Invest in Boston Properties guide.

Boston Properties Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Boston Properties' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Boston Properties' future price movements. Getting to know how Boston Properties' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Boston Properties may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
MLPMaui Land Pineapple 0.33 9 per month 1.77  0  3.73 (3.48) 13.31 
SEGSeaport Entertainment Group 0.33 9 per month 0.00 (0.16) 2.08 (4.01) 9.38 
FRPHFrp Holdings Ord(0.09)20 per month 0.00 (0.11) 2.27 (2.90) 8.28 
FPHFive Point Holdings 0.33 5 per month 0.00 (0.10) 2.56 (2.83) 6.59 
SVCService Properties Trust 0.33 3 per month 0.00 (0.05) 5.49 (5.29) 17.15 
RMRRMR Group 0.03 32 per month 1.19  0.06  2.67 (2.17) 9.83 
NREFNexpoint Real Estate 0.1 16 per month 1.37  0.06  2.44 (2.47) 8.26 
CHCTCommunity Healthcare Trust(0.17)9 per month 1.15  0.19  2.83 (1.83) 8.25 
ILPTIndustrial Logistics Properties 0.33 3 per month 3.04  0.01  4.70 (5.49) 13.68 
NENNew England Realty 0.07 27 per month 0.00 (0.17) 2.26 (2.46) 6.28 

Other Forecasting Options for Boston Properties

For every potential investor in Boston, whether a beginner or expert, Boston Properties' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Boston Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Boston. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Boston Properties' price trends.

Boston Properties Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Boston Properties stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Boston Properties could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Boston Properties by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Boston Properties Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Boston Properties stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Boston Properties shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Boston Properties stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Boston Properties entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Boston Properties Risk Indicators

The analysis of Boston Properties' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Boston Properties' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting boston stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Boston Properties

The number of cover stories for Boston Properties depends on current market conditions and Boston Properties' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Boston Properties is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Boston Properties' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Boston Properties Short Properties

Boston Properties' future price predictability will typically decrease when Boston Properties' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Boston Properties often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Boston Properties' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Boston Properties' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding157.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.3 B

Additional Tools for Boston Stock Analysis

When running Boston Properties' price analysis, check to measure Boston Properties' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Boston Properties is operating at the current time. Most of Boston Properties' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Boston Properties' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Boston Properties' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Boston Properties to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.