Baozun Stock Forward View
| BZUN Stock | USD 2.76 0.08 2.99% |
Baozun Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Baozun's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Baozun's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Baozun fundamentals over time.
As of today, the value of RSI of Baozun's share price is approaching 45 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Baozun, making its price go up or down. Momentum 45
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.48) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.8179 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.6863 | Wall Street Target Price 4.5381 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.048 |
Using Baozun hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Baozun Inc from the perspective of Baozun response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Baozun using Baozun's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Baozun using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Baozun's stock price.
Baozun Implied Volatility | 0.8 |
Baozun's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Baozun Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Baozun's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Baozun stock will not fluctuate a lot when Baozun's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Baozun Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 2.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.19. Baozun after-hype prediction price | USD 2.76 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Baozun to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Baozun Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Baozun's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Baozun's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Baozun stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Baozun's open interest, investors have to compare it to Baozun's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Baozun is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Baozun. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Baozun Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Baozun price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Baozun using various technical indicators. When you analyze Baozun charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Baozun Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Baozun's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2012-12-31 | Previous Quarter 1.2 B | Current Value 1.1 B | Quarterly Volatility 1.1 B |
Baozun Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Baozun Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 2.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Baozun Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Baozun's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Baozun Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Baozun | Baozun Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Baozun Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Baozun's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Baozun's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 5.16, respectively. We have considered Baozun's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Baozun stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Baozun stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.1975 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0688 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0239 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.1938 |
Predictive Modules for Baozun
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Baozun Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Baozun's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Baozun After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Baozun at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Baozun or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Baozun, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Baozun Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Baozun's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Baozun's historical news coverage. Baozun's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.19 and 5.33, respectively. We have considered Baozun's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Baozun is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Baozun Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Baozun Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Baozun is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Baozun backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Baozun, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 2.58 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 6 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.76 | 2.76 | 0.00 |
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Baozun Hype Timeline
Baozun Inc is currently traded for 2.76. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Baozun is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.26%. %. The volatility of related hype on Baozun is about 5733.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.75. About 23.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.3. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Baozun Inc recorded a loss per share of 0.47. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Baozun to cross-verify your projections.Baozun Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Baozun's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Baozun's future price movements. Getting to know how Baozun's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Baozun may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LOGC | Contextlogic | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.44 | 0.01 | 4.12 | (2.80) | 9.27 | |
| DBI | Designer Brands | (0.51) | 8 per month | 3.63 | 0.13 | 10.60 | (6.37) | 57.50 | |
| SRI | Stoneridge | (0.14) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.64 | (4.11) | 18.36 | |
| FLWS | 1 800 FLOWERSCOM | 0.16 | 7 per month | 4.12 | 0.05 | 7.67 | (7.38) | 43.73 | |
| MSC | Studio City International | 0.01 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 7.67 | (7.93) | 25.28 | |
| BARK | BARK Inc | (0.02) | 9 per month | 3.06 | 0.02 | 10.61 | (5.71) | 30.25 | |
| SDA | SunCar Technology Group | (0.05) | 5 per month | 2.57 | 0.03 | 4.84 | (4.55) | 18.23 | |
| DIBS | 1StdibsCom | (0.09) | 8 per month | 2.28 | 0.20 | 9.58 | (4.63) | 23.12 | |
| AKA | AKA Brands Holding | 0.08 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 6.54 | (6.20) | 21.24 | |
| CHPT | ChargePoint Holdings | 0.11 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 5.83 | (6.84) | 31.33 |
Other Forecasting Options for Baozun
For every potential investor in Baozun, whether a beginner or expert, Baozun's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Baozun Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Baozun. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Baozun's price trends.Baozun Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Baozun stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Baozun could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Baozun by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Baozun Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Baozun stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Baozun shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Baozun stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Baozun Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Baozun Risk Indicators
The analysis of Baozun's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Baozun's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting baozun stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.54 | |||
| Variance | 6.47 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Baozun
The number of cover stories for Baozun depends on current market conditions and Baozun's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Baozun is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Baozun's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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Baozun Short Properties
Baozun's future price predictability will typically decrease when Baozun's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Baozun Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Baozun's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Baozun's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 59.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.9 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Baozun to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Will Broadline Retail sector continue expanding? Could Baozun diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Baozun. Projected growth potential of Baozun fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Baozun data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.48) | Earnings Share (0.47) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.048 | Return On Assets |
Baozun Inc's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Baozun's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Baozun's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Baozun's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Baozun's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Baozun should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Baozun's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.