CHIPOTLE MEXICAN Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| C9F Stock | EUR 30.96 1.74 5.32% |
CHIPOTLE Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength momentum indicator of CHIPOTLE MEXICAN's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using CHIPOTLE MEXICAN hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CHIPOTLE MEXICAN from the perspective of CHIPOTLE MEXICAN response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CHIPOTLE MEXICAN on the next trading day is expected to be 30.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.70. CHIPOTLE MEXICAN after-hype prediction price | EUR 30.96 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
CHIPOTLE |
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CHIPOTLE price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CHIPOTLE using various technical indicators. When you analyze CHIPOTLE charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CHIPOTLE MEXICAN on the next trading day is expected to be 30.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49, mean absolute percentage error of 0.37, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.70.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CHIPOTLE Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CHIPOTLE MEXICAN's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CHIPOTLE MEXICAN | CHIPOTLE MEXICAN Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CHIPOTLE MEXICAN's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CHIPOTLE MEXICAN's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.81 and 32.58, respectively. We have considered CHIPOTLE MEXICAN's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CHIPOTLE MEXICAN stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CHIPOTLE MEXICAN stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0108 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4864 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0158 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.6954 |
Predictive Modules for CHIPOTLE MEXICAN
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CHIPOTLE MEXICAN. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CHIPOTLE MEXICAN After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CHIPOTLE MEXICAN at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CHIPOTLE MEXICAN or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CHIPOTLE MEXICAN, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CHIPOTLE MEXICAN's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CHIPOTLE MEXICAN's historical news coverage. CHIPOTLE MEXICAN's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 29.07 and 32.85, respectively. We have considered CHIPOTLE MEXICAN's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CHIPOTLE MEXICAN is based on 3 months time horizon.
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CHIPOTLE MEXICAN is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CHIPOTLE MEXICAN backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CHIPOTLE MEXICAN, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 1.89 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 7 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
30.96 | 30.96 | 0.00 |
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CHIPOTLE MEXICAN Hype Timeline
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN is currently traded for 30.96on Munich Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. CHIPOTLE is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.3%. %. The volatility of related hype on CHIPOTLE MEXICAN is about 50400.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.96. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.97. CHIPOTLE MEXICAN had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 50:1 split on the 26th of June 2024. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CHIPOTLE MEXICAN to cross-verify your projections.CHIPOTLE MEXICAN Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CHIPOTLE MEXICAN's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CHIPOTLE MEXICAN's future price movements. Getting to know how CHIPOTLE MEXICAN's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CHIPOTLE MEXICAN may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PUP0 | PUBLIC STORAGE PRFO | (0.10) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.57 | (1.54) | 7.74 | |
| D0D | DICKER DATA LTD | 0.05 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.27 | (4.92) | 11.46 | |
| 5PMA | GREENX METALS LTD | 0.02 | 5 per month | 2.88 | 0.08 | 7.55 | (6.12) | 27.62 | |
| IA5 | INDO ACIDATAMA | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 45.00 | |
| TWY | Alibaba Health Information | (0.03) | 5 per month | 2.76 | 0 | 6.78 | (5.13) | 25.45 | |
| 85S | Science Applications International | 0.49 | 10 per month | 2.00 | 0.03 | 4.53 | (3.97) | 22.13 | |
| DOC2 | DOCDATA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.44 | (4.65) | 14.17 | |
| MR3 | ITALIAN WINE BRANDS | (0.40) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.26 | (2.34) | 19.56 |
Other Forecasting Options for CHIPOTLE MEXICAN
For every potential investor in CHIPOTLE, whether a beginner or expert, CHIPOTLE MEXICAN's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CHIPOTLE Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CHIPOTLE. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CHIPOTLE MEXICAN's price trends.CHIPOTLE MEXICAN Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CHIPOTLE MEXICAN stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CHIPOTLE MEXICAN could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CHIPOTLE MEXICAN by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CHIPOTLE MEXICAN stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CHIPOTLE MEXICAN shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CHIPOTLE MEXICAN stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CHIPOTLE MEXICAN entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 3.0E-4 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (174.00) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.95 | |||
| Day Median Price | 30.96 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 30.96 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.01 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.87) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.74) |
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN Risk Indicators
The analysis of CHIPOTLE MEXICAN's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CHIPOTLE MEXICAN's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting chipotle stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.72 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.78 | |||
| Variance | 7.71 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CHIPOTLE MEXICAN
The number of cover stories for CHIPOTLE MEXICAN depends on current market conditions and CHIPOTLE MEXICAN's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CHIPOTLE MEXICAN is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CHIPOTLE MEXICAN's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for CHIPOTLE Stock Analysis
When running CHIPOTLE MEXICAN's price analysis, check to measure CHIPOTLE MEXICAN's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CHIPOTLE MEXICAN is operating at the current time. Most of CHIPOTLE MEXICAN's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CHIPOTLE MEXICAN's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CHIPOTLE MEXICAN's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CHIPOTLE MEXICAN to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.