Carlsberg Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CABGY Stock | USD 26.99 0.24 0.90% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Carlsberg AS on the next trading day is expected to be 26.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.88. Carlsberg Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Carlsberg's pink sheet price is slightly above 60 suggesting that the pink sheet is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Carlsberg, making its price go up or down. Momentum 60
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Carlsberg hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Carlsberg AS from the perspective of Carlsberg response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Carlsberg AS on the next trading day is expected to be 26.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.88. Carlsberg after-hype prediction price | USD 26.99 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Carlsberg |
Carlsberg Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Carlsberg price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Carlsberg using various technical indicators. When you analyze Carlsberg charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Carlsberg Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Carlsberg AS on the next trading day is expected to be 26.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Carlsberg Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Carlsberg's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Carlsberg Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Carlsberg | Carlsberg Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Carlsberg Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Carlsberg's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Carlsberg's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.71 and 28.27, respectively. We have considered Carlsberg's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Carlsberg pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Carlsberg pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.015 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0397 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.248 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0098 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.88 |
Predictive Modules for Carlsberg
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Carlsberg AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Carlsberg After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Carlsberg at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Carlsberg or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Carlsberg, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Carlsberg Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Carlsberg's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Carlsberg's historical news coverage. Carlsberg's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.71 and 28.27, respectively. We have considered Carlsberg's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Carlsberg is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Carlsberg AS is based on 3 months time horizon.
Carlsberg Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Carlsberg is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Carlsberg backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Carlsberg, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
26.99 | 26.99 | 0.00 |
|
Carlsberg Hype Timeline
Carlsberg AS is currently traded for 26.99. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Carlsberg is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.16%. %. The volatility of related hype on Carlsberg is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 26.99. The book value of the company was currently reported as 46.46. The company last dividend was issued on the 14th of March 2023. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Carlsberg to cross-verify your projections.Carlsberg Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Carlsberg's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Carlsberg's future price movements. Getting to know how Carlsberg's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Carlsberg may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ASBRF | Asahi Group Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.37 | (0.02) | 4.48 | (5.75) | 23.70 | |
| EMBVF | Arca Continental SAB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.33 | 0.07 | 3.81 | (2.59) | 8.45 | |
| CCHGY | Coca Cola HBC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.50 | 0.1 | 2.06 | (1.14) | 7.78 | |
| FMXUF | Fomento Econmico Mexicano | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 0.96 | (0.94) | 8.79 | |
| BDWBF | Budweiser Brewing | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.45 | (0.02) | 7.37 | (8.26) | 24.88 | |
| BDWBY | Budweiser Brewing | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.53 | (4.83) | 11.45 | |
| HKHHY | Heineken Holding NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.04 | (0.04) | 2.50 | (1.59) | 6.08 | |
| HKHHF | Heineken Holding NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.90 | (0.04) | 1.73 | (2.02) | 7.11 | |
| CCHBF | Coca Cola HBC AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.06 | 3.20 | 0.00 | 11.95 | |
| KRYAF | Kerry Group plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 0.00 | (1.14) | 7.99 |
Other Forecasting Options for Carlsberg
For every potential investor in Carlsberg, whether a beginner or expert, Carlsberg's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Carlsberg Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Carlsberg. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Carlsberg's price trends.Carlsberg Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Carlsberg pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Carlsberg could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Carlsberg by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Carlsberg Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Carlsberg pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Carlsberg shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Carlsberg pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Carlsberg AS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Carlsberg Risk Indicators
The analysis of Carlsberg's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Carlsberg's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting carlsberg pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9802 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8549 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Variance | 1.65 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.2 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7309 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.11) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Carlsberg
The number of cover stories for Carlsberg depends on current market conditions and Carlsberg's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Carlsberg is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Carlsberg's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Additional Tools for Carlsberg Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Carlsberg's price analysis, check to measure Carlsberg's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Carlsberg is operating at the current time. Most of Carlsberg's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Carlsberg's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Carlsberg's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Carlsberg to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.