Camden National Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| CAC Stock | USD 47.57 0.91 1.95% |
Camden Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Camden National stock prices and determine the direction of Camden National's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Camden National's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Camden National's stock price is about 61 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Camden, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Camden National hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Camden National from the perspective of Camden National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Camden National on the next trading day is expected to be 47.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68 and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.35. Camden National after-hype prediction price | USD 47.57 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Camden National to cross-verify your projections. Camden National Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Camden price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Camden using various technical indicators. When you analyze Camden charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Camden National Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Camden National on the next trading day is expected to be 47.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68, mean absolute percentage error of 0.79, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Camden Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Camden National's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Camden National Stock Forecast Pattern
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Camden National Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Camden National's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Camden National's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 45.88 and 49.68, respectively. We have considered Camden National's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Camden National stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Camden National stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1018 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.684 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0159 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 40.3547 |
Predictive Modules for Camden National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Camden National. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Camden National After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Camden National at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Camden National or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Camden National, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Camden National Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Camden National's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Camden National's historical news coverage. Camden National's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 45.67 and 49.47, respectively. We have considered Camden National's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Camden National is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Camden National is based on 3 months time horizon.
Camden National Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Camden National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Camden National backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Camden National, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.38 | 1.90 | 0.35 | 0.41 | 15 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 15 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
47.57 | 47.57 | 0.00 |
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Camden National Hype Timeline
On the 1st of February Camden National is traded for 47.57. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.35, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.41. Camden is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.38%. %. The volatility of related hype on Camden National is about 175.6%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 47.98. About 74.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.13. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Camden National last dividend was issued on the 15th of January 2026. The entity had 3:2 split on the 3rd of October 2016. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 15 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Camden National to cross-verify your projections.Camden National Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Camden National's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Camden National's future price movements. Getting to know how Camden National's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Camden National may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CCBG | Capital City Bank | 0.09 | 9 per month | 1.87 | 0.02 | 3.11 | (3.38) | 9.74 | |
| MCBS | MetroCity Bankshares | 0.44 | 7 per month | 1.42 | 0.06 | 2.87 | (2.71) | 9.78 | |
| MPB | Mid Penn Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.30 | 0.12 | 3.32 | (1.82) | 10.40 | |
| NBBK | NB Bancorp Common | 3.34 | 22 per month | 0.91 | 0.20 | 2.93 | (1.81) | 6.22 | |
| ORRF | Orrstown Financial Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.26 | 0.06 | 2.73 | (2.35) | 8.73 | |
| GSBC | Great Southern Bancorp | 3.57 | 9 per month | 1.80 | 0.05 | 2.88 | (2.34) | 14.35 | |
| HTBK | Heritage Commerce Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.13 | 0.18 | 2.85 | (2.06) | 9.72 | |
| IBCP | Independent Bank | 1.40 | 6 per month | 1.17 | 0.08 | 2.57 | (2.57) | 7.82 | |
| THFF | First Financial | 1.06 | 9 per month | 1.38 | 0.14 | 3.55 | (2.36) | 10.39 | |
| MCB | Metropolitan Bank Holding | 0.92 | 8 per month | 1.09 | 0.18 | 3.81 | (1.74) | 19.32 |
Other Forecasting Options for Camden National
For every potential investor in Camden, whether a beginner or expert, Camden National's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Camden Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Camden. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Camden National's price trends.Camden National Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Camden National stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Camden National could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Camden National by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Camden National Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Camden National stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Camden National shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Camden National stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Camden National entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Camden National Risk Indicators
The analysis of Camden National's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Camden National's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting camden stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.9 | |||
| Variance | 3.62 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.82 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.61 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.59) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Camden National
The number of cover stories for Camden National depends on current market conditions and Camden National's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Camden National is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Camden National's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Camden National to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Camden Stock refer to our How to Trade Camden Stock guide.You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Will Regional Banks sector continue expanding? Could Camden diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Camden National. Projected growth potential of Camden fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Camden National data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
The market value of Camden National is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Camden that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Camden National's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Camden National's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Camden National's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Camden National's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Camden National's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Camden National should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Camden National's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.