Carrier Global Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| CARR Stock | USD 59.79 1.88 3.25% |
Carrier Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Carrier Global's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Carrier Global's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Carrier Global fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Carrier Global's stock price is slightly above 62 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Carrier, making its price go up or down. Momentum 62
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.005 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.5298 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.6056 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.8758 | Wall Street Target Price 70.5425 |
Using Carrier Global hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Carrier Global Corp from the perspective of Carrier Global response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Carrier Global using Carrier Global's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Carrier using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Carrier Global's stock price.
Carrier Global Short Interest
An investor who is long Carrier Global may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Carrier Global and may potentially protect profits, hedge Carrier Global with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 63.184 | Short Percent 0.0186 | Short Ratio 2.08 | Shares Short Prior Month 11.1 M | 50 Day MA 54.073 |
Carrier Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Carrier Global Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 55.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 101.60.Carrier Global Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Carrier Global's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Carrier. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Carrier can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Carrier Global Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Carrier Global's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Carrier Global.
Carrier Global Implied Volatility | 0.55 |
Carrier Global's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Carrier Global Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Carrier Global's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Carrier Global stock will not fluctuate a lot when Carrier Global's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Carrier Global Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 55.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 101.60. Carrier Global after-hype prediction price | USD 59.85 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Carrier Global to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Carrier contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Carrier Global Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0344% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Carrier Global trading at USD 59.79, that is roughly USD 0.0206 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Carrier Global's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Carrier Global Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.55%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Carrier Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Carrier Global's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Carrier Global's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Carrier Global stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Carrier Global's open interest, investors have to compare it to Carrier Global's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Carrier Global is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Carrier. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Carrier Global Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Carrier price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Carrier using various technical indicators. When you analyze Carrier charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Carrier Global Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Carrier Global Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 55.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.67, mean absolute percentage error of 4.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 101.60.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Carrier Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Carrier Global's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Carrier Global Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Carrier Global | Carrier Global Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Carrier Global Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Carrier Global's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Carrier Global's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 53.83 and 57.17, respectively. We have considered Carrier Global's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Carrier Global stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Carrier Global stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.5241 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.6656 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0304 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 101.6018 |
Predictive Modules for Carrier Global
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Carrier Global Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Carrier Global After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Carrier Global at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Carrier Global or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Carrier Global, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Carrier Global Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Carrier Global's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Carrier Global's historical news coverage. Carrier Global's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 58.18 and 61.52, respectively. We have considered Carrier Global's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Carrier Global is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Carrier Global Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Carrier Global Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Carrier Global is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Carrier Global backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Carrier Global, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 1.67 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
59.79 | 59.85 | 0.10 |
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Carrier Global Hype Timeline
Carrier Global Corp is currently traded for 59.79. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.09. Carrier is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 59.85 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 181.52%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Carrier Global is about 135.99%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 59.88. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 22.49 B. Net Income was 1.21 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 6.03 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Carrier Global to cross-verify your projections.Carrier Global Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Carrier Global's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Carrier Global's future price movements. Getting to know how Carrier Global's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Carrier Global may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FERG | Ferguson Plc | (3.05) | 8 per month | 2.05 | 0 | 2.77 | (2.56) | 11.07 | |
| ROP | Roper Technologies | 3.73 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 1.28 | (2.41) | 12.33 | |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | (0.11) | 8 per month | 1.16 | (0.02) | 2.01 | (1.98) | 6.62 | |
| AME | Ametek Inc | 4.06 | 8 per month | 0.51 | 0.17 | 2.39 | (1.34) | 9.36 | |
| GWW | WW Grainger | (3.47) | 9 per month | 1.03 | 0.09 | 2.85 | (1.69) | 7.07 | |
| JCI | Johnson Controls International | 1.37 | 10 per month | 1.51 | 0.03 | 1.94 | (2.00) | 15.08 | |
| PCAR | PACCAR Inc | (0.62) | 10 per month | 0.76 | 0.18 | 3.68 | (1.63) | 7.16 | |
| LHX | L3Harris Technologies | 3.95 | 8 per month | 1.10 | 0.16 | 3.09 | (2.27) | 7.10 | |
| FER | Ferrovial SE | (0.46) | 9 per month | 0.98 | 0.04 | 2.60 | (1.93) | 6.80 | |
| FIX | Comfort Systems USA | 6.88 | 7 per month | 3.12 | 0.08 | 4.01 | (5.84) | 14.58 |
Other Forecasting Options for Carrier Global
For every potential investor in Carrier, whether a beginner or expert, Carrier Global's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Carrier Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Carrier. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Carrier Global's price trends.Carrier Global Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Carrier Global stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Carrier Global could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Carrier Global by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Carrier Global Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Carrier Global stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Carrier Global shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Carrier Global stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Carrier Global Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Carrier Global Risk Indicators
The analysis of Carrier Global's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Carrier Global's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting carrier stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.76 | |||
| Variance | 3.09 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.02 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.83 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.62) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Carrier Global
The number of cover stories for Carrier Global depends on current market conditions and Carrier Global's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Carrier Global is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Carrier Global's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Carrier Global Short Properties
Carrier Global's future price predictability will typically decrease when Carrier Global's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Carrier Global Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Carrier Global's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Carrier Global's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 911.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4 B |
Additional Tools for Carrier Stock Analysis
When running Carrier Global's price analysis, check to measure Carrier Global's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Carrier Global is operating at the current time. Most of Carrier Global's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Carrier Global's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Carrier Global's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Carrier Global to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.