Johnson Controls International Stock Price Prediction

JCI Stock  USD 81.14  0.68  0.85%   
As of 18th of January 2025, the relative strength index (RSI) of Johnson Controls' share price is approaching 40. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Johnson Controls, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

40

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Johnson Controls' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Johnson Controls International, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Johnson Controls' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.18
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.56
EPS Estimate Current Year
3.4976
EPS Estimate Next Year
4.0776
Wall Street Target Price
88.8727
Using Johnson Controls hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Johnson Controls International from the perspective of Johnson Controls response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Johnson Controls using Johnson Controls' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Johnson using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Johnson Controls' stock price.

Johnson Controls Implied Volatility

    
  0.37  
Johnson Controls' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Johnson Controls International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Johnson Controls' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Johnson Controls stock will not fluctuate a lot when Johnson Controls' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Johnson Controls to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Johnson because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Johnson Controls after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 81.26  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Johnson contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Johnson Controls International will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0231% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With Johnson Controls trading at USD 81.14, that is roughly USD 0.0188 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Johnson Controls' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Johnson Controls International options at the current volatility level of 0.37%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Johnson Controls Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Johnson Controls' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
73.0384.5786.24
Details
24 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
80.5488.5198.25
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.570.590.60
Details

Johnson Controls After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Johnson Controls at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Johnson Controls or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Johnson Controls, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Johnson Controls Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Johnson Controls' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Johnson Controls' historical news coverage. Johnson Controls' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 79.59 and 82.93, respectively. We have considered Johnson Controls' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
81.14
81.26
After-hype Price
82.93
Upside
Johnson Controls is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Johnson Controls Int is based on 3 months time horizon.

Johnson Controls Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Johnson Controls is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Johnson Controls backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Johnson Controls, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.10 
1.67
  0.12 
  0.02 
9 Events / Month
10 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
81.14
81.26
0.15 
136.89  
Notes

Johnson Controls Hype Timeline

On the 18th of January 2025 Johnson Controls Int is traded for 81.14. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.12, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Johnson is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 81.26 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 136.89%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.15%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Johnson Controls is about 709.27%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 81.12. The company reported the last year's revenue of 22.95 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 1.41 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 8.08 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Johnson Controls Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Johnson Controls Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Johnson Controls' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Johnson Controls' future price movements. Getting to know how Johnson Controls' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Johnson Controls may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
CARRCarrier Global Corp 0.70 9 per month 0.00 (0.12) 2.06 (2.44) 10.13 
LIILennox International 1.14 12 per month 1.63  0.06  2.89 (2.89) 7.42 
MASMasco(0.25)13 per month 0.00 (0.08) 1.98 (2.17) 7.42 
CSLCarlisle Companies Incorporated 1.64 7 per month 0.00 (0.13) 2.27 (2.06) 11.30 
TTTrane Technologies plc 2.81 10 per month 0.00 (0.03) 1.62 (2.33) 7.11 
FBINFortune Brands Innovations(0.61)11 per month 0.00 (0.13) 2.26 (3.55) 10.95 
BLDRBuilders FirstSource(0.18)9 per month 0.00 (0.10) 4.73 (3.98) 10.94 
NXQuanex Building Products(0.99)9 per month 0.00 (0.09) 4.11 (4.79) 12.44 
JELDJeld Wen Holding(0.26)9 per month 0.00 (0.12) 5.54 (5.43) 32.38 
AZEKAzek Company(0.49)11 per month 1.88  0.09  3.79 (2.33) 11.76 
OCOwens Corning(6.10)12 per month 1.62  0.01  2.81 (2.64) 8.76 

Johnson Controls Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Johnson price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Johnson using various technical indicators. When you analyze Johnson charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Johnson Controls Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Johnson Controls stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Johnson Controls International, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Johnson Controls based on analysis of Johnson Controls hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Johnson Controls's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Johnson Controls's related companies.
 2022 2023 2024 2025 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.02710.01910.01720.0169
Price To Sales Ratio1.352.282.052.15

Story Coverage note for Johnson Controls

The number of cover stories for Johnson Controls depends on current market conditions and Johnson Controls' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Johnson Controls is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Johnson Controls' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Johnson Controls Short Properties

Johnson Controls' future price predictability will typically decrease when Johnson Controls' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Johnson Controls International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Johnson Controls' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Johnson Controls' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding676 M
Cash And Short Term Investments606 M

Complementary Tools for Johnson Stock analysis

When running Johnson Controls' price analysis, check to measure Johnson Controls' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Johnson Controls is operating at the current time. Most of Johnson Controls' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Johnson Controls' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Johnson Controls' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Johnson Controls to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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