Caseys General Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CASY Stock | USD 623.33 4.52 0.73% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Caseys General Stores on the next trading day is expected to be 628.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 454.08. Caseys Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of Caseys General's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.14 | EPS Estimate Current Year 17.2883 | EPS Estimate Next Year 19.1492 | Wall Street Target Price 636.8 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 5.204 |
Using Caseys General hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Caseys General Stores from the perspective of Caseys General response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Caseys General using Caseys General's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Caseys using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Caseys General's stock price.
Caseys General Short Interest
An investor who is long Caseys General may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Caseys General and may potentially protect profits, hedge Caseys General with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 518.7202 | Short Percent 0.0225 | Short Ratio 2.39 | Shares Short Prior Month 820 K | 50 Day MA 566.1086 |
Caseys General Stores Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Caseys General's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Caseys. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Caseys can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Caseys General Stores. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Caseys General Implied Volatility | 0.32 |
Caseys General's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Caseys General Stores stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Caseys General's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Caseys General stock will not fluctuate a lot when Caseys General's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Caseys General Stores on the next trading day is expected to be 628.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 454.08. Caseys General after-hype prediction price | USD 624.29 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Caseys General to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Caseys contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Caseys General Stores will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.02% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Caseys General trading at USD 623.33, that is roughly USD 0.12 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Caseys General's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Caseys General Stores options at the current volatility level of 0.32%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Caseys Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Caseys General's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Caseys General's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Caseys General stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Caseys General's open interest, investors have to compare it to Caseys General's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Caseys General is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Caseys. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Caseys General Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Caseys price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Caseys using various technical indicators. When you analyze Caseys charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Caseys General's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1986-04-30 | Previous Quarter 458.1 M | Current Value 492 M | Quarterly Volatility 118.9 M |
Caseys General Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Caseys General Stores on the next trading day is expected to be 628.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.44, mean absolute percentage error of 84.90, and the sum of the absolute errors of 454.08.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Caseys Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Caseys General's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Caseys General Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Caseys General | Caseys General Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Caseys General Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Caseys General's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Caseys General's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 627.18 and 630.37, respectively. We have considered Caseys General's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Caseys General stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Caseys General stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.552 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 7.4439 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0132 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 454.0788 |
Predictive Modules for Caseys General
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Caseys General Stores. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Caseys General's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Caseys General After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Caseys General at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Caseys General or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Caseys General, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Caseys General Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Caseys General's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Caseys General's historical news coverage. Caseys General's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 622.69 and 625.89, respectively. We have considered Caseys General's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Caseys General is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Caseys General Stores is based on 3 months time horizon.
Caseys General Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Caseys General is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Caseys General backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Caseys General, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 1.60 | 0.96 | 0.23 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
623.33 | 624.29 | 0.15 |
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Caseys General Hype Timeline
Caseys General Stores is currently traded for 623.33. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.96, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.23. Caseys is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 624.29 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 43.24%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.15%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.26%. The volatility of related hype on Caseys General is about 177.19%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 623.56. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 15.94 B. Net Income was 546.52 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 4.07 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Caseys General to cross-verify your projections.Caseys General Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Caseys General's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Caseys General's future price movements. Getting to know how Caseys General's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Caseys General may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BBY | Best Buy Co | 1.03 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.36 | (2.85) | 10.22 | |
| GPC | Genuine Parts Co | (0.49) | 26 per month | 1.31 | 0.01 | 2.82 | (1.86) | 7.35 | |
| DKS | Dicks Sporting Goods | 0.71 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.13 | (3.41) | 14.16 | |
| BURL | Burlington Stores | (0.49) | 16 per month | 2.99 | 0.05 | 4.29 | (3.49) | 17.25 | |
| LULU | Lululemon Athletica | (0.30) | 2 per month | 2.39 | 0.04 | 4.31 | (3.90) | 16.10 | |
| RL | Ralph Lauren Corp | 3.88 | 11 per month | 1.31 | 0.06 | 3.09 | (2.19) | 7.40 | |
| ULTA | Ulta Beauty | 5.67 | 9 per month | 0.99 | 0.17 | 2.71 | (2.03) | 14.68 | |
| SW | Smurfit WestRock plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.70 | (0) | 4.83 | (3.37) | 12.17 | |
| IHG | InterContinental Hotels Group | (0.49) | 22 per month | 1.03 | 0.1 | 2.69 | (2.04) | 7.94 | |
| AMCR | Amcor PLC | (0.49) | 11 per month | 1.77 | 0.02 | 2.00 | (1.88) | 10.51 |
Other Forecasting Options for Caseys General
For every potential investor in Caseys, whether a beginner or expert, Caseys General's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Caseys Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Caseys. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Caseys General's price trends.Caseys General Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Caseys General stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Caseys General could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Caseys General by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Caseys General Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Caseys General stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Caseys General shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Caseys General stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Caseys General Stores entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 3722.05 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.4622 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 618.52 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 620.12 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 7.07 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 4.52 |
Caseys General Risk Indicators
The analysis of Caseys General's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Caseys General's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting caseys stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.49 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Variance | 2.61 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.63 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.23 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.34) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Caseys General
The number of cover stories for Caseys General depends on current market conditions and Caseys General's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Caseys General is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Caseys General's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Caseys General Short Properties
Caseys General's future price predictability will typically decrease when Caseys General's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Caseys General Stores often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Caseys General's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Caseys General's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 37.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 326.7 M |
Additional Tools for Caseys Stock Analysis
When running Caseys General's price analysis, check to measure Caseys General's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Caseys General is operating at the current time. Most of Caseys General's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Caseys General's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Caseys General's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Caseys General to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.