Cogeco Communications Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CCA Stock | CAD 67.50 4.26 5.94% |
Cogeco Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Cogeco Communications' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Cogeco Communications' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Cogeco Communications fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Cogeco Communications' share price is at 51 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Cogeco Communications, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.12) | EPS Estimate Current Year 8.7294 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.7429 | Wall Street Target Price 76.025 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 2.0501 |
Using Cogeco Communications hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cogeco Communications from the perspective of Cogeco Communications response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cogeco Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 66.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.77 and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.07. Cogeco Communications after-hype prediction price | CAD 67.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Cogeco |
Cogeco Communications Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cogeco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cogeco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cogeco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Cogeco Communications Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cogeco Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 66.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.77, mean absolute percentage error of 1.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.07.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cogeco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cogeco Communications' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cogeco Communications Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Cogeco Communications | Cogeco Communications Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Cogeco Communications Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Cogeco Communications' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cogeco Communications' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 64.91 and 67.91, respectively. We have considered Cogeco Communications' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cogeco Communications stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cogeco Communications stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1969 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7678 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0114 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 46.0704 |
Predictive Modules for Cogeco Communications
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cogeco Communications. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Cogeco Communications After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cogeco Communications at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cogeco Communications or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cogeco Communications, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cogeco Communications Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cogeco Communications' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cogeco Communications' historical news coverage. Cogeco Communications' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 65.73 and 69.27, respectively. We have considered Cogeco Communications' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cogeco Communications is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cogeco Communications is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cogeco Communications Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cogeco Communications is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cogeco Communications backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cogeco Communications, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 1.50 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 10 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
67.50 | 67.50 | 0.00 |
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Cogeco Communications Hype Timeline
Cogeco Communications is currently traded for 67.50on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Cogeco is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.19%. %. The volatility of related hype on Cogeco Communications is about 1436.17%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 67.52. About 25.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.93. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Cogeco Communications has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.32. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.31. The firm last dividend was issued on the 28th of January 2026. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cogeco Communications to cross-verify your projections.Cogeco Communications Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cogeco Communications' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cogeco Communications' future price movements. Getting to know how Cogeco Communications' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cogeco Communications may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CGO | Cogeco Inc | 0.58 | 2 per month | 1.54 | 0.09 | 2.96 | (1.58) | 7.09 | |
| TGO | TeraGo Inc | (0.03) | 2 per month | 3.39 | (0.01) | 7.89 | (6.15) | 18.04 | |
| RAY-A | Stingray Group | 0.45 | 8 per month | 0.87 | 0.17 | 4.47 | (1.88) | 21.48 | |
| Y | Yellow Pages Limited | (0.01) | 5 per month | 1.01 | (0.01) | 2.13 | (1.58) | 5.58 | |
| TBRD | Thunderbird Entertainment Group | (0.04) | 8 per month | 1.81 | 0.12 | 5.06 | (3.48) | 33.14 | |
| ZOMD | Zoomd Technologies | (0.12) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 5.93 | (7.02) | 33.11 | |
| CGX | Cineplex | 0.13 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 1.74 | (3.58) | 7.57 | |
| YOO | Yangaroo | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 0.00 | (14.29) | 36.67 | |
| WILD | WildBrain | (0.02) | 7 per month | 3.08 | 0.01 | 6.25 | (5.67) | 37.45 |
Other Forecasting Options for Cogeco Communications
For every potential investor in Cogeco, whether a beginner or expert, Cogeco Communications' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cogeco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cogeco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cogeco Communications' price trends.Cogeco Communications Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cogeco Communications stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cogeco Communications could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cogeco Communications by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cogeco Communications Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cogeco Communications stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cogeco Communications shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cogeco Communications stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cogeco Communications entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 17035.32 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (3.70) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.94 | |||
| Day Median Price | 67.16 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 67.27 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.79) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (4.26) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 51.47 |
Cogeco Communications Risk Indicators
The analysis of Cogeco Communications' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cogeco Communications' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cogeco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.99 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.72 | |||
| Variance | 2.96 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.13 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.95 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.04) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Cogeco Communications
The number of cover stories for Cogeco Communications depends on current market conditions and Cogeco Communications' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cogeco Communications is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cogeco Communications' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Cogeco Communications Short Properties
Cogeco Communications' future price predictability will typically decrease when Cogeco Communications' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cogeco Communications often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cogeco Communications' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cogeco Communications' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 42.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 75.2 M |
Other Information on Investing in Cogeco Stock
Cogeco Communications financial ratios help investors to determine whether Cogeco Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Cogeco with respect to the benefits of owning Cogeco Communications security.