Crown Holdings Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CCK Stock | USD 107.78 3.10 2.96% |
Crown Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Crown Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Crown Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Crown Holdings fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Crown Holdings' stock price is about 60 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Crown, making its price go up or down. Momentum 60
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.076 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.5777 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.7556 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.2155 | Wall Street Target Price 122.4286 |
Using Crown Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Crown Holdings from the perspective of Crown Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Crown Holdings using Crown Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Crown using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Crown Holdings' stock price.
Crown Holdings Short Interest
An investor who is long Crown Holdings may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Crown Holdings and may potentially protect profits, hedge Crown Holdings with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 98.961 | Short Percent 0.0658 | Short Ratio 4.67 | Shares Short Prior Month 6 M | 50 Day MA 101.0252 |
Crown Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Crown Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 107.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 75.96.Crown Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Crown Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Crown. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Crown can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Crown Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Crown Holdings' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Crown Holdings.
Crown Holdings Implied Volatility | 0.37 |
Crown Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Crown Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Crown Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Crown Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when Crown Holdings' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Crown Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 107.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 75.96. Crown Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 107.78 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Crown Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Crown contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Crown Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0231% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Crown Holdings trading at USD 107.78, that is roughly USD 0.0249 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Crown Holdings' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Crown Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.37%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Crown Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Crown Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Crown Holdings' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Crown Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Crown Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to Crown Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Crown Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Crown. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Crown Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Crown price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Crown using various technical indicators. When you analyze Crown charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Crown Holdings Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Crown Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 107.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.25, mean absolute percentage error of 2.43, and the sum of the absolute errors of 75.96.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Crown Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Crown Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Crown Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Crown Holdings | Crown Holdings Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Crown Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Crown Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Crown Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 106.22 and 109.34, respectively. We have considered Crown Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Crown Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Crown Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.9976 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1764 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2452 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0124 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 75.96 |
Predictive Modules for Crown Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Crown Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Crown Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Crown Holdings After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Crown Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Crown Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Crown Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Crown Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Crown Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Crown Holdings' historical news coverage. Crown Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 106.23 and 109.33, respectively. We have considered Crown Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Crown Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Crown Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Crown Holdings Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Crown Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Crown Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Crown Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 1.56 | 0.17 | 0.03 | 29 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 29 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
107.78 | 107.78 | 0.00 |
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Crown Holdings Hype Timeline
On the 3rd of February Crown Holdings is traded for 107.78. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.17, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Crown is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 145.79%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.16%. %. The volatility of related hype on Crown Holdings is about 866.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 107.75. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Crown Holdings was currently reported as 26.45. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.66. Crown Holdings recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.06. The entity last dividend was issued on the 6th of November 2025. The firm had 3:1 split on the 1st of June 1992. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 29 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Crown Holdings to cross-verify your projections.Crown Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Crown Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Crown Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Crown Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Crown Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BALL | Ball Corporation | 0.44 | 10 per month | 1.33 | 0.12 | 3.01 | (2.09) | 7.45 | |
| DECK | Deckers Outdoor | (1.69) | 9 per month | 1.83 | 0.13 | 4.19 | (3.35) | 8.65 | |
| SCI | Service International | (0.39) | 9 per month | 0.92 | (0.04) | 1.77 | (1.61) | 7.10 | |
| PAG | Penske Automotive Group | 1.38 | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.62 | (2.10) | 6.07 | |
| SN | SharkNinja | 0.96 | 9 per month | 2.26 | 0.11 | 5.64 | (3.37) | 10.24 | |
| NCLH | Norwegian Cruise Line | (0.37) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.40 | (4.78) | 16.18 | |
| TXRH | Texas Roadhouse | 0.42 | 8 per month | 1.56 | 0.03 | 2.78 | (2.47) | 8.07 | |
| TOL | Toll Brothers | (3.23) | 11 per month | 1.32 | 0.02 | 4.26 | (2.61) | 10.06 | |
| HTHT | Huazhu Group | 0.54 | 10 per month | 1.46 | 0.14 | 2.60 | (2.83) | 11.94 | |
| ALV | Autoliv | 0.14 | 9 per month | 1.53 | 0 | 2.85 | (2.57) | 8.44 |
Other Forecasting Options for Crown Holdings
For every potential investor in Crown, whether a beginner or expert, Crown Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Crown Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Crown. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Crown Holdings' price trends.Crown Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Crown Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Crown Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Crown Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Crown Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Crown Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Crown Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Crown Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Crown Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Crown Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Crown Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Crown Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting crown stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Variance | 2.34 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.92 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.34 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.16) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Crown Holdings
The number of cover stories for Crown Holdings depends on current market conditions and Crown Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Crown Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Crown Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Crown Holdings Short Properties
Crown Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Crown Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Crown Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Crown Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Crown Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 119.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Crown Holdings to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Crown Stock please use our How to buy in Crown Stock guide.You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Is Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Crown Holdings. Projected growth potential of Crown fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Crown Holdings assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.076 | Dividend Share 1.03 | Earnings Share 8.06 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.042 |
Understanding Crown Holdings requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Crown's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Crown Holdings' is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Crown Holdings' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Crown Holdings' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Crown Holdings should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Crown Holdings' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.