Concord Medical Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CCM Stock | USD 5.22 0.62 13.48% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Concord Medical Services on the next trading day is expected to be 5.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.33. Concord Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Concord Medical's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Concord Medical's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Concord Medical fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Concord Medical's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Wall Street Target Price 1.2 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.08) |
Using Concord Medical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Concord Medical Services from the perspective of Concord Medical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Concord Medical Services on the next trading day is expected to be 5.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.33. Concord Medical after-hype prediction price | USD 5.21 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Concord Medical to cross-verify your projections. Concord Medical Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Concord price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Concord using various technical indicators. When you analyze Concord charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Concord Medical Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Concord Medical's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2007-12-31 | Previous Quarter 177.4 M | Current Value 177.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 214.7 M |
Concord Medical Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Concord Medical Services on the next trading day is expected to be 5.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.1, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Concord Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Concord Medical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Concord Medical Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Concord Medical | Concord Medical Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Concord Medical Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Concord Medical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Concord Medical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.05 and 11.43, respectively. We have considered Concord Medical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Concord Medical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Concord Medical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.7743 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2514 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0584 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.333 |
Predictive Modules for Concord Medical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Concord Medical Services. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Concord Medical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Concord Medical After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Concord Medical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Concord Medical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Concord Medical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Concord Medical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Concord Medical's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Concord Medical's historical news coverage. Concord Medical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.26 and 11.31, respectively. We have considered Concord Medical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Concord Medical is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Concord Medical Services is based on 3 months time horizon.
Concord Medical Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Concord Medical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Concord Medical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Concord Medical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 6.05 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
5.22 | 5.21 | 0.19 |
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Concord Medical Hype Timeline
On the 25th of January Concord Medical Services is traded for 5.22. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Concord is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 5.21. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Concord Medical is about 37812.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.22. About 18.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 5.38. Concord Medical Services last dividend was issued on the 23rd of December 2015. The entity had 1:10 split on the 30th of July 2024. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Concord Medical to cross-verify your projections.Concord Medical Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Concord Medical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Concord Medical's future price movements. Getting to know how Concord Medical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Concord Medical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SYRA | Syra Health Corp | 0.05 | 22 per month | 6.36 | 0.04 | 20.00 | (13.00) | 36.75 | |
| XAGE | Longevity Health Holdings | 0.02 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 20.41 | (21.05) | 56.31 | |
| IVF | INVO Fertility | (0.01) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 17.34 | (16.50) | 207.78 | |
| SISI | Shineco | (0.04) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 42.86 | (36.67) | 114.83 | |
| HEPA | Hepion Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 21 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| WORX | Scworx Corp | (0.04) | 25 per month | 6.13 | 0 | 10.34 | (9.37) | 57.56 | |
| CELU | Celularity | 0.02 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 9.01 | (8.97) | 26.97 | |
| PTPI | Petros Pharmaceuticals | 0.05 | 19 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 15.79 | (18.18) | 55.00 | |
| BACK | IMAC Holdings | 0.15 | 8 per month | 14.76 | 0.11 | 50.00 | (29.29) | 271.43 | |
| ADTX | Aditxt Inc | (0.04) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 22.54 | (28.09) | 63.67 |
Other Forecasting Options for Concord Medical
For every potential investor in Concord, whether a beginner or expert, Concord Medical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Concord Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Concord. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Concord Medical's price trends.Concord Medical Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Concord Medical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Concord Medical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Concord Medical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Concord Medical Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Concord Medical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Concord Medical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Concord Medical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Concord Medical Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Concord Medical Risk Indicators
The analysis of Concord Medical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Concord Medical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting concord stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.72 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.17 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.99 | |||
| Variance | 35.93 | |||
| Downside Variance | 29.21 | |||
| Semi Variance | 26.68 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.47) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Concord Medical
The number of cover stories for Concord Medical depends on current market conditions and Concord Medical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Concord Medical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Concord Medical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Concord Medical Short Properties
Concord Medical's future price predictability will typically decrease when Concord Medical's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Concord Medical Services often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Concord Medical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Concord Medical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 145.6 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 350.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Concord Medical to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Health Care Providers & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Concord Medical. If investors know Concord will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Concord Medical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (5.38) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.08) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Concord Medical Services is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Concord that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Concord Medical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Concord Medical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Concord Medical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Concord Medical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Concord Medical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Concord Medical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Concord Medical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.