Concord Medical Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| CCM Stock | USD 3.79 0.12 3.07% |
Concord Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Concord Medical's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Concord Medical's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Concord Medical fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Concord Medical's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Wall Street Target Price 1.2 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.08) |
Using Concord Medical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Concord Medical Services from the perspective of Concord Medical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Concord Medical Services on the next trading day is expected to be 3.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.48. Concord Medical after-hype prediction price | USD 3.83 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Concord Medical to cross-verify your projections. Concord Medical Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Concord price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Concord using various technical indicators. When you analyze Concord charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Concord Medical Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Concord Medical Services on the next trading day is expected to be 3.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.48.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Concord Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Concord Medical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Concord Medical Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Concord Medical | Concord Medical Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Concord Medical Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Concord Medical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Concord Medical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 9.84, respectively. We have considered Concord Medical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Concord Medical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Concord Medical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0349 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.208 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0485 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.4806 |
Predictive Modules for Concord Medical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Concord Medical Services. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Concord Medical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Concord Medical After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Concord Medical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Concord Medical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Concord Medical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Concord Medical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Concord Medical's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Concord Medical's historical news coverage. Concord Medical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.19 and 9.93, respectively. We have considered Concord Medical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Concord Medical is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Concord Medical Services is based on 3 months time horizon.
Concord Medical Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Concord Medical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Concord Medical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Concord Medical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.34 | 6.09 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 9 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.79 | 3.83 | 1.06 |
|
Concord Medical Hype Timeline
On the 7th of February Concord Medical Services is traded for 3.79. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Concord is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 3.83 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 1.06%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.34%. The volatility of related hype on Concord Medical is about 7078.93%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.76. The company reported the last year's revenue of 383.96 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (652.08 M) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (41.85 M). Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Concord Medical to cross-verify your projections.Concord Medical Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Concord Medical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Concord Medical's future price movements. Getting to know how Concord Medical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Concord Medical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SYRA | Syra Health Corp | (0.0003) | 3 per month | 5.99 | 0.05 | 19.66 | (11.87) | 36.75 | |
| XAGE | Longevity Health Holdings | 0.02 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 18.60 | (18.75) | 46.80 | |
| IVF | INVO Fertility | 0.04 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 12.22 | (16.50) | 218.36 | |
| SISI | Shineco | (0.1) | 4 per month | 13.96 | 0 | 42.86 | (36.67) | 114.83 | |
| HEPA | Hepion Pharmaceuticals | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.45) | 13.95 | (25.00) | 78.13 | |
| WORX | Scworx Corp | 0.01 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 10.00 | (10.53) | 57.56 | |
| CELU | Celularity | (0.07) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 10.29 | (8.15) | 26.97 | |
| PTPI | Petros Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 12.50 | (14.29) | 55.00 | |
| BACK | IMAC Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 13.79 | 0.1 | 37.80 | (25.25) | 271.43 | |
| ADTX | Aditxt Inc | (0.80) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 22.54 | (26.05) | 63.67 |
Other Forecasting Options for Concord Medical
For every potential investor in Concord, whether a beginner or expert, Concord Medical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Concord Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Concord. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Concord Medical's price trends.Concord Medical Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Concord Medical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Concord Medical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Concord Medical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Concord Medical Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Concord Medical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Concord Medical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Concord Medical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Concord Medical Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 62.66 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (2.40) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 3.8 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 3.79 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.07) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.12) |
Concord Medical Risk Indicators
The analysis of Concord Medical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Concord Medical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting concord stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.82 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.17 | |||
| Variance | 38.04 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Concord Medical
The number of cover stories for Concord Medical depends on current market conditions and Concord Medical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Concord Medical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Concord Medical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Concord Medical Short Properties
Concord Medical's future price predictability will typically decrease when Concord Medical's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Concord Medical Services often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Concord Medical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Concord Medical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 145.6 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 350.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Concord Medical to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
Will Health Care Providers & Services sector continue expanding? Could Concord diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Concord Medical. Projected growth potential of Concord fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Concord Medical data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share (5.40) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.08) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Understanding Concord Medical Services requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Concord's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Concord Medical's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Concord Medical's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Concord Medical's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Concord Medical should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Concord Medical's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.