Avid Bioservices Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

CDMO Stock  USD 12.49  0.01  0.08%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Avid Bioservices on the next trading day is expected to be 12.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.13. Avid Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Avid Bioservices works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Avid Bioservices Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Avid Bioservices on the next trading day is expected to be 12.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.13.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Avid Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Avid Bioservices' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Avid Bioservices Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Avid BioservicesAvid Bioservices Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Avid Bioservices Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Avid Bioservices' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Avid Bioservices' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.04 and 12.96, respectively. We have considered Avid Bioservices' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.49
12.50
Expected Value
12.96
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Avid Bioservices stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Avid Bioservices stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0242
MADMean absolute deviation0.07
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0057
SAESum of the absolute errors4.1279
When Avid Bioservices prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Avid Bioservices trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Avid Bioservices observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Avid Bioservices

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Avid Bioservices. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.0412.4912.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.6612.1112.56
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
12.3212.4212.52
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Avid Bioservices

For every potential investor in Avid, whether a beginner or expert, Avid Bioservices' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Avid Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Avid. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Avid Bioservices' price trends.

View Avid Bioservices Related Equities

 Risk & Return  Correlation

Avid Bioservices Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Avid Bioservices' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Avid Bioservices' current price.

Avid Bioservices Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Avid Bioservices stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Avid Bioservices shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Avid Bioservices stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Avid Bioservices entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Avid Bioservices Risk Indicators

The analysis of Avid Bioservices' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Avid Bioservices' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting avid stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Avid Bioservices

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Avid Bioservices position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Avid Bioservices will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Avid Stock

  0.51MBRX Moleculin BiotechPairCorr
  0.49MDXG MiMedx GroupPairCorr
  0.41VANI Vivani MedicalPairCorr
  0.37MBIO Mustang BioPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Avid Bioservices could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Avid Bioservices when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Avid Bioservices - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Avid Bioservices to buy it.
The correlation of Avid Bioservices is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Avid Bioservices moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Avid Bioservices moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Avid Bioservices can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Avid Bioservices offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Avid Bioservices' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Avid Bioservices Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Avid Bioservices Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Avid Bioservices to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Avid Stock, please use our How to Invest in Avid Bioservices guide.
You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Is Pharmaceutical Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Avid Bioservices. If investors know Avid will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Avid Bioservices listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Avid Bioservices is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Avid that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Avid Bioservices' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Avid Bioservices' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Avid Bioservices' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Avid Bioservices' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Avid Bioservices' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Avid Bioservices is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Avid Bioservices' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.