COPT Defense Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CDP Stock | 30.43 0.10 0.33% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of COPT Defense Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 30.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.95. COPT Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although COPT Defense's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of COPT Defense's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of COPT Defense fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of COPT Defense's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.154 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.32 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.3455 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.32 | Wall Street Target Price 33 |
Using COPT Defense hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of COPT Defense Properties from the perspective of COPT Defense response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards COPT Defense using COPT Defense's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards COPT using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of COPT Defense's stock price.
COPT Defense Short Interest
An investor who is long COPT Defense may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about COPT Defense and may potentially protect profits, hedge COPT Defense with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 28.3201 | Short Percent 0.0509 | Short Ratio 4.59 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.2 M | 50 Day MA 29.275 |
COPT Defense Properties Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to COPT Defense's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in COPT. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding COPT can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around COPT Defense Properties. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
COPT Defense Implied Volatility | 1.13 |
COPT Defense's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of COPT Defense Properties stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if COPT Defense's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that COPT Defense stock will not fluctuate a lot when COPT Defense's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of COPT Defense Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 30.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.95. COPT Defense after-hype prediction price | USD 30.42 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of COPT Defense to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current COPT contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that COPT Defense Properties will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0706% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With COPT Defense trading at USD 30.43, that is roughly USD 0.0215 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating COPT Defense's daily price movement you should consider acquiring COPT Defense Properties options at the current volatility level of 1.13%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 COPT Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast COPT Defense's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in COPT Defense's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for COPT Defense stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current COPT Defense's open interest, investors have to compare it to COPT Defense's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of COPT Defense is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in COPT. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
COPT Defense Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine COPT price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for COPT using various technical indicators. When you analyze COPT charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
COPT Defense Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of COPT Defense Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 30.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict COPT Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that COPT Defense's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
COPT Defense Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest COPT Defense | COPT Defense Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
COPT Defense Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting COPT Defense's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. COPT Defense's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.34 and 31.70, respectively. We have considered COPT Defense's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of COPT Defense stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent COPT Defense stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0282 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2704 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0093 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.9515 |
Predictive Modules for COPT Defense
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as COPT Defense Properties. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of COPT Defense's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
COPT Defense After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of COPT Defense at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in COPT Defense or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of COPT Defense, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
COPT Defense Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting COPT Defense's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on COPT Defense's historical news coverage. COPT Defense's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 29.24 and 31.60, respectively. We have considered COPT Defense's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
COPT Defense is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of COPT Defense Properties is based on 3 months time horizon.
COPT Defense Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as COPT Defense is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading COPT Defense backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with COPT Defense, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 1.18 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 10 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
30.43 | 30.42 | 0.03 |
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COPT Defense Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January COPT Defense Properties is traded for 30.43. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. COPT is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 30.42. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.14%. The volatility of related hype on COPT Defense is about 842.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.45. About 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of COPT Defense was currently reported as 13.37. The company last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of COPT Defense to cross-verify your projections.COPT Defense Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to COPT Defense's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict COPT Defense's future price movements. Getting to know how COPT Defense's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how COPT Defense may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HIW | Highwoods Properties | 0.21 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 1.92 | (2.07) | 5.76 | |
| VNO | Vornado Realty Trust | 0.98 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.88 | (2.94) | 9.20 | |
| BXMT | Blackstone Mortgage Trust | 0.38 | 8 per month | 0.86 | 0.04 | 2.90 | (1.56) | 5.68 | |
| GRP-UN | Granite Real Estate | (0.08) | 6 per month | 3.54 | 0.04 | 2.81 | (2.08) | 30.14 | |
| OUT | Outfront Media | 0.53 | 9 per month | 0.80 | 0.20 | 3.65 | (2.34) | 16.82 | |
| ABR | Arbor Realty Trust | (0.30) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 3.39 | (4.81) | 14.67 | |
| RYN | Rayonier | 0.06 | 11 per month | 1.38 | (0.03) | 3.60 | (2.60) | 8.02 | |
| PSA | Public Storage | (0.66) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.27 | (2.17) | 6.57 |
Other Forecasting Options for COPT Defense
For every potential investor in COPT, whether a beginner or expert, COPT Defense's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. COPT Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in COPT. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying COPT Defense's price trends.COPT Defense Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with COPT Defense stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of COPT Defense could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing COPT Defense by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
COPT Defense Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how COPT Defense stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading COPT Defense shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying COPT Defense stock market strength indicators, traders can identify COPT Defense Properties entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
COPT Defense Risk Indicators
The analysis of COPT Defense's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in COPT Defense's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting copt stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.841 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7112 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Variance | 1.3 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.7653 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.5058 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.01) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for COPT Defense
The number of cover stories for COPT Defense depends on current market conditions and COPT Defense's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that COPT Defense is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about COPT Defense's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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COPT Defense Short Properties
COPT Defense's future price predictability will typically decrease when COPT Defense's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of COPT Defense Properties often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential COPT Defense's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. COPT Defense's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 112.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 38.3 M |
Additional Tools for COPT Stock Analysis
When running COPT Defense's price analysis, check to measure COPT Defense's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy COPT Defense is operating at the current time. Most of COPT Defense's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of COPT Defense's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move COPT Defense's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of COPT Defense to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.