CA Modas Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| CEAB3 Stock | BRL 12.86 0.14 1.10% |
CEAB3 Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of RSI of CA Modas' share price is at 56 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling CA Modas, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using CA Modas hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CA Modas SA from the perspective of CA Modas response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of CA Modas SA on the next trading day is expected to be 14.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.88. CA Modas after-hype prediction price | BRL 12.86 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
CEAB3 |
CA Modas Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CEAB3 price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CEAB3 using various technical indicators. When you analyze CEAB3 charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CA Modas Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 19th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of CA Modas SA on the next trading day is expected to be 14.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70, mean absolute percentage error of 0.65, and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CEAB3 Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CA Modas' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CA Modas Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CA Modas | CA Modas Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
CA Modas Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CA Modas' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CA Modas' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.46 and 18.37, respectively. We have considered CA Modas' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CA Modas stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CA Modas stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.6859 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.703 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.054 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 42.8812 |
Predictive Modules for CA Modas
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CA Modas SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CA Modas After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CA Modas at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CA Modas or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CA Modas, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CA Modas Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CA Modas' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CA Modas' historical news coverage. CA Modas' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.90 and 16.82, respectively. We have considered CA Modas' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CA Modas is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CA Modas SA is based on 3 months time horizon.
CA Modas Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CA Modas is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CA Modas backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CA Modas, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.34 | 3.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.86 | 12.86 | 0.00 |
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CA Modas Hype Timeline
CA Modas SA is currently traded for 12.86on Sao Paulo Exchange of Brazil. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. CEAB3 is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.34%. %. The volatility of related hype on CA Modas is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.86. About 65.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.26. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. CA Modas SA has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 236.05. The entity last dividend was issued on the 2nd of January 2020. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CA Modas to cross-verify your projections.CA Modas Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CA Modas' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CA Modas' future price movements. Getting to know how CA Modas' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CA Modas may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GUAR3 | Guararapes Confeces SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.40 | 0.05 | 6.58 | (3.64) | 40.50 | |
| GRND3 | Grendene SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.35 | 0.1 | 2.80 | (2.76) | 49.96 | |
| MGLU3 | Magazine Luiza SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.38 | 0.12 | 5.79 | (4.71) | 17.80 | |
| SBFG3 | Grupo SBF SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.75 | (4.49) | 14.14 | |
| LEVE3 | MAHLE Metal Leve | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.48 | 0.11 | 3.23 | (2.64) | 11.76 | |
| MRVE3 | MRV Engenharia e | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.40 | 0.13 | 5.16 | (3.96) | 13.46 | |
| AZZA3 | Azzas 2154 SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.34 | (2.91) | 14.36 | |
| BHIA3 | Grupo Casas Bahia | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.40 | (4.72) | 31.55 | |
| VULC3 | Vulcabras Azaleia SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.94 | (1.78) | 7.34 | |
| WHRL3 | Whirlpool SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.12 | (0.02) | 1.86 | (1.89) | 5.20 |
Other Forecasting Options for CA Modas
For every potential investor in CEAB3, whether a beginner or expert, CA Modas' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CEAB3 Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CEAB3. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CA Modas' price trends.CA Modas Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CA Modas stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CA Modas could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CA Modas by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CA Modas Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CA Modas stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CA Modas shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CA Modas stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CA Modas SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
CA Modas Risk Indicators
The analysis of CA Modas' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CA Modas' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ceab3 stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.83 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.89 | |||
| Variance | 15.1 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CA Modas
The number of cover stories for CA Modas depends on current market conditions and CA Modas' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CA Modas is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CA Modas' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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CA Modas Short Properties
CA Modas' future price predictability will typically decrease when CA Modas' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CA Modas SA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CA Modas' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CA Modas' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 308 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Additional Tools for CEAB3 Stock Analysis
When running CA Modas' price analysis, check to measure CA Modas' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CA Modas is operating at the current time. Most of CA Modas' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CA Modas' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CA Modas' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CA Modas to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.