Central Europe Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CEE Fund | USD 18.53 0.28 1.49% |
Central Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Central Europe stock prices and determine the direction of Central Europe Russia's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Central Europe's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Central Europe's fund price is about 63 suggesting that the fund is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Central, making its price go up or down. Momentum 63
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Central Europe hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Central Europe Russia from the perspective of Central Europe response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Central Europe Russia on the next trading day is expected to be 18.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.91. Central Europe after-hype prediction price | USD 18.53 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Central |
Central Europe Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Central price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Central using various technical indicators. When you analyze Central charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Central Europe Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Central Europe Russia on the next trading day is expected to be 18.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.91.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Central Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Central Europe's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Central Europe Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Central Europe | Central Europe Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Central Europe Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Central Europe's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Central Europe's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.02 and 20.04, respectively. We have considered Central Europe's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Central Europe fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Central Europe fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.5463 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0508 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1985 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0118 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.91 |
Predictive Modules for Central Europe
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Central Europe Russia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Central Europe's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Central Europe After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Central Europe at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Central Europe or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Fund prices, such as prices of Central Europe, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Central Europe Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Central Europe's fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Central Europe's historical news coverage. Central Europe's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.03 and 20.03, respectively. We have considered Central Europe's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Central Europe is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Central Europe Russia is based on 3 months time horizon.
Central Europe Fund Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Fund such as Central Europe is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Central Europe backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Central Europe, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.31 | 1.51 | 0.55 | 2.85 | 2 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
18.53 | 18.53 | 0.00 |
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Central Europe Hype Timeline
On the 26th of January Central Europe Russia is traded for 18.53. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.55, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -2.85. Central is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 84.83%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.31%. %. The volatility of related hype on Central Europe is about 16.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.68. About 39.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.06. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Central Europe Russia recorded earning per share (EPS) of 13.91. The entity last dividend was issued on the 29th of December 2021. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Central Europe to cross-verify your projections.Central Europe Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Central Europe's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Central Europe's future price movements. Getting to know how Central Europe's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Central Europe may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PGP | Pimco Global Stocksplus | (0.06) | 1 per month | 0.57 | 0.11 | 1.44 | (0.84) | 3.94 | |
| GDL | Gdl Closed Fund | (0.01) | 7 per month | 0.53 | (0.13) | 0.72 | (0.95) | 2.02 | |
| EEA | European Equity Closed | 0.03 | 3 per month | 1.37 | (0.06) | 1.26 | (1.55) | 7.48 | |
| WMBLX | Wesmark Balanced Fund | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.71 | (0.56) | 6.87 | |
| USBNX | Pear Tree Polaris | (0.03) | 7 per month | 0.00 | 0.14 | 2.19 | (1.07) | 15.35 | |
| PFSMX | Riskproreg Pfg 30 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.58 | (0.04) | 0.95 | (1.11) | 2.69 | |
| RBCGX | Reynolds Blue Chip | (50.01) | 1 per month | 0.78 | 0.06 | 1.46 | (1.73) | 21.46 | |
| VILLX | Villere Balanced Fund | (4.06) | 2 per month | 0.38 | (0.06) | 1.00 | (0.69) | 1.99 | |
| CHASX | Chase Growth Fund | 0.14 | 1 per month | 1.01 | 0.12 | 1.95 | (1.70) | 12.57 | |
| UMPSX | Ultramid Cap Profund Ultramid Cap | (37.99) | 7 per month | 1.66 | 0.06 | 3.51 | (2.79) | 7.52 |
Other Forecasting Options for Central Europe
For every potential investor in Central, whether a beginner or expert, Central Europe's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Central Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Central. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Central Europe's price trends.Central Europe Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Central Europe fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Central Europe could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Central Europe by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Central Europe Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Central Europe fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Central Europe shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Central Europe fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Central Europe Russia entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Central Europe Risk Indicators
The analysis of Central Europe's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Central Europe's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting central fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9377 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.5 | |||
| Variance | 2.24 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.41 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8794 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.50) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Central Europe
The number of cover stories for Central Europe depends on current market conditions and Central Europe's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Central Europe is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Central Europe's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Central Fund
Central Europe financial ratios help investors to determine whether Central Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Central with respect to the benefits of owning Central Europe security.
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