Carlyle Secured Stock Forward View
| CGBD Stock | USD 12.25 0.08 0.65% |
Carlyle Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Carlyle Secured stock prices and determine the direction of Carlyle Secured Lending's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Carlyle Secured's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Carlyle Secured's share price is approaching 45 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Carlyle Secured, making its price go up or down. Momentum 45
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.06) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.4012 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.5283 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.4804 | Wall Street Target Price 13.3571 |
Using Carlyle Secured hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Carlyle Secured Lending from the perspective of Carlyle Secured response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Carlyle Secured using Carlyle Secured's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Carlyle using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Carlyle Secured's stock price.
Carlyle Secured Implied Volatility | 1.7 |
Carlyle Secured's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Carlyle Secured Lending stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Carlyle Secured's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Carlyle Secured stock will not fluctuate a lot when Carlyle Secured's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Carlyle Secured Lending on the next trading day is expected to be 11.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.96. Carlyle Secured after-hype prediction price | USD 12.33 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Carlyle Secured to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Carlyle contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Carlyle Secured Lending will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.11% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Carlyle Secured trading at USD 12.25, that is roughly USD 0.013 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Carlyle Secured's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Carlyle Secured Lending options at the current volatility level of 1.7%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Carlyle Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Carlyle Secured's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Carlyle Secured's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Carlyle Secured stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Carlyle Secured's open interest, investors have to compare it to Carlyle Secured's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Carlyle Secured is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Carlyle. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Carlyle Secured Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Carlyle price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Carlyle using various technical indicators. When you analyze Carlyle charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Carlyle Secured Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Carlyle Secured's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2013-03-31 | Previous Quarter 28.7 M | Current Value 52.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 25.1 M |
Carlyle Secured Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Carlyle Secured Lending on the next trading day is expected to be 11.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.96.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Carlyle Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Carlyle Secured's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Carlyle Secured Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Carlyle Secured | Carlyle Secured Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Carlyle Secured Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Carlyle Secured's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Carlyle Secured's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.47 and 12.98, respectively. We have considered Carlyle Secured's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Carlyle Secured stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Carlyle Secured stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.4415 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1305 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0107 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.9579 |
Predictive Modules for Carlyle Secured
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Carlyle Secured Lending. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Carlyle Secured After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Carlyle Secured at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Carlyle Secured or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Carlyle Secured, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Carlyle Secured Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Carlyle Secured's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Carlyle Secured's historical news coverage. Carlyle Secured's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.07 and 13.59, respectively. We have considered Carlyle Secured's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Carlyle Secured is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Carlyle Secured Lending is based on 3 months time horizon.
Carlyle Secured Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Carlyle Secured is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Carlyle Secured backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Carlyle Secured, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 19 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 19 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.25 | 12.33 | 0.00 |
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Carlyle Secured Hype Timeline
Carlyle Secured Lending is currently traded for 12.25. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Carlyle is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Carlyle Secured is about 5250.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.25. About 39.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.75. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Carlyle Secured Lending has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 179.5. The entity last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 19 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Carlyle Secured to cross-verify your projections.Carlyle Secured Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Carlyle Secured's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Carlyle Secured's future price movements. Getting to know how Carlyle Secured's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Carlyle Secured may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BCSF | Bain Capital Specialty | (0.09) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.93 | (1.87) | 6.32 | |
| PFLT | PennantPark Floating Rate | 0.10 | 11 per month | 0.74 | 0.07 | 1.95 | (1.50) | 4.17 | |
| SLRC | SLR Investment Corp | 0.07 | 7 per month | 1.00 | (0.02) | 1.77 | (1.73) | 4.32 | |
| NMFC | New Mountain Finance | (0.14) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.41 | (1.72) | 7.07 | |
| KBDC | Kayne Anderson BDC | 0.15 | 8 per month | 1.26 | (0.01) | 2.84 | (2.35) | 6.04 | |
| GAINI | Gladstone Investment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.35 | (0.19) | 0.35 | (0.31) | 1.98 | |
| GSBD | Goldman Sachs BDC | 0.04 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.88 | (1.93) | 4.85 | |
| FDUS | Fidus Investment Corp | 0.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.94 | (1.84) | 5.94 | |
| MFIC | MidCap Financial Investment | 0.08 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.18 | (1.47) | 6.99 | |
| BBDC | Barings BDC | 0.02 | 9 per month | 0.89 | 0.02 | 1.44 | (1.34) | 4.34 |
Other Forecasting Options for Carlyle Secured
For every potential investor in Carlyle, whether a beginner or expert, Carlyle Secured's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Carlyle Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Carlyle. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Carlyle Secured's price trends.Carlyle Secured Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Carlyle Secured stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Carlyle Secured could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Carlyle Secured by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Carlyle Secured Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Carlyle Secured stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Carlyle Secured shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Carlyle Secured stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Carlyle Secured Lending entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Carlyle Secured Risk Indicators
The analysis of Carlyle Secured's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Carlyle Secured's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting carlyle stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9908 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Variance | 1.62 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.8 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.65 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.99) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Carlyle Secured
The number of cover stories for Carlyle Secured depends on current market conditions and Carlyle Secured's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Carlyle Secured is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Carlyle Secured's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Carlyle Secured Short Properties
Carlyle Secured's future price predictability will typically decrease when Carlyle Secured's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Carlyle Secured Lending often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Carlyle Secured's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Carlyle Secured's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 56.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 29.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Carlyle Secured to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Will Asset Management & Custody Banks sector continue expanding? Could Carlyle diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Carlyle Secured. Projected growth potential of Carlyle fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Carlyle Secured data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.06) | Dividend Share 1.6 | Earnings Share 1.16 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.188 |
Carlyle Secured Lending's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Carlyle's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Carlyle Secured's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Carlyle Secured's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Carlyle Secured's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Carlyle Secured should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Carlyle Secured's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.