CARBACID INVESTMENTS Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

CIL Stock   20.45  0.40  2.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of CARBACID INVESTMENTS LTD on the next trading day is expected to be 22.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.07. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast CARBACID INVESTMENTS's stock prices and determine the direction of CARBACID INVESTMENTS LTD's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of CARBACID INVESTMENTS's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in interest.
  
A naive forecasting model for CARBACID INVESTMENTS is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of CARBACID INVESTMENTS LTD value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

CARBACID INVESTMENTS Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of CARBACID INVESTMENTS LTD on the next trading day is expected to be 22.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46, mean absolute percentage error of 0.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.07.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CARBACID Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CARBACID INVESTMENTS's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

CARBACID INVESTMENTS Stock Forecast Pattern

CARBACID INVESTMENTS Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting CARBACID INVESTMENTS's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CARBACID INVESTMENTS's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.20 and 24.89, respectively. We have considered CARBACID INVESTMENTS's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
20.45
22.05
Expected Value
24.89
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CARBACID INVESTMENTS stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CARBACID INVESTMENTS stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.1662
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4601
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0215
SAESum of the absolute errors28.0681
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of CARBACID INVESTMENTS LTD. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict CARBACID INVESTMENTS. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for CARBACID INVESTMENTS

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CARBACID INVESTMENTS LTD. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CARBACID INVESTMENTS's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.

Other Forecasting Options for CARBACID INVESTMENTS

For every potential investor in CARBACID, whether a beginner or expert, CARBACID INVESTMENTS's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CARBACID Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CARBACID. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CARBACID INVESTMENTS's price trends.

CARBACID INVESTMENTS Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CARBACID INVESTMENTS stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CARBACID INVESTMENTS could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CARBACID INVESTMENTS by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

CARBACID INVESTMENTS LTD Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CARBACID INVESTMENTS's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CARBACID INVESTMENTS's current price.

CARBACID INVESTMENTS Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CARBACID INVESTMENTS stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CARBACID INVESTMENTS shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CARBACID INVESTMENTS stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CARBACID INVESTMENTS LTD entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

CARBACID INVESTMENTS Risk Indicators

The analysis of CARBACID INVESTMENTS's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CARBACID INVESTMENTS's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting carbacid stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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