Caisse Regionale Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

CIV Stock  EUR 108.50  1.52  1.42%   
Caisse Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Caisse Regionale stock prices and determine the direction of Caisse Regionale de's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Caisse Regionale's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Caisse Regionale's stock price is about 61 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Caisse, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 61

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Caisse Regionale's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Caisse Regionale de, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Caisse Regionale's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.07)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.007
Using Caisse Regionale hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Caisse Regionale de from the perspective of Caisse Regionale response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Caisse Regionale de on the next trading day is expected to be 108.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 83.47.

Caisse Regionale after-hype prediction price

    
  EUR 108.38  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Caisse Regionale to cross-verify your projections.

Caisse Regionale Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Caisse price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Caisse using various technical indicators. When you analyze Caisse charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Caisse Regionale simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Caisse Regionale de are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Caisse Regionale prices get older.

Caisse Regionale Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Caisse Regionale de on the next trading day is expected to be 108.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.37, mean absolute percentage error of 2.97, and the sum of the absolute errors of 83.47.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Caisse Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Caisse Regionale's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Caisse Regionale Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Caisse Regionale  Caisse Regionale Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Caisse Regionale Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Caisse Regionale's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Caisse Regionale's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 106.55 and 110.00, respectively. We have considered Caisse Regionale's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
108.50
106.55
Downside
108.27
Expected Value
110.00
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Caisse Regionale stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Caisse Regionale stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.1993
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.234
MADMean absolute deviation1.3684
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0128
SAESum of the absolute errors83.4736
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Caisse Regionale de forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Caisse Regionale observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Caisse Regionale

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Caisse Regionale. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
106.65108.38110.11
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
105.37107.09108.83
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
19.78108.09112.50
Details

Caisse Regionale After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Caisse Regionale at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Caisse Regionale or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Caisse Regionale, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Caisse Regionale Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Caisse Regionale's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Caisse Regionale's historical news coverage. Caisse Regionale's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 106.65 and 110.11, respectively. We have considered Caisse Regionale's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
108.50
106.65
Downside
108.38
After-hype Price
110.11
Upside
Caisse Regionale is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Caisse Regionale is based on 3 months time horizon.

Caisse Regionale Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Caisse Regionale is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Caisse Regionale backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Caisse Regionale, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.16 
1.73
  0.12 
  0.08 
1 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
108.50
108.38
0.11 
233.78  
Notes

Caisse Regionale Hype Timeline

Caisse Regionale is currently traded for 108.50on Euronext Paris of France. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.12, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Caisse is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 108.38. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -0.11%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.16%. The volatility of related hype on Caisse Regionale is about 350.2%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 108.58. About 45.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.27. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Caisse Regionale recorded earning per share (EPS) of 10.1. The entity last dividend was issued on the 13th of May 2025. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be very soon.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Caisse Regionale to cross-verify your projections.

Caisse Regionale Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Caisse Regionale's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Caisse Regionale's future price movements. Getting to know how Caisse Regionale's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Caisse Regionale may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
CAT31Ca Toulouse 31 0.00 0 per month 2.00 (0.01) 3.89 (3.44) 11.07 
CRAVCaisse rgionale de 0.00 0 per month 1.60  0  3.70 (2.76) 12.22 
CCNCaisse Regionale de 0.00 0 per month 1.94  0.03  3.58 (3.39) 8.58 
CMOCaisse Rgionale de 2.02 1 per month 2.52  0.01  5.00 (4.06) 16.17 
BSDBourse Direct SA(0.04)2 per month 0.97  0.12  2.56 (1.67) 12.90 
CRLACaisse Regionale de 0.00 0 per month 1.51 (0.04) 3.70 (2.94) 9.62 
CRTOCaisse Reg Cred 1.62 1 per month 1.70  0.05  3.72 (3.18) 11.49 
CRSUCaisse Regionale De 0.00 0 per month 1.42 (0.05) 3.26 (2.76) 11.04 
CRLOCaisse Regionale de 1.34 1 per month 1.51 (0) 3.15 (3.10) 9.56 
CRAPCaisse Rgionale du 0.00 0 per month 1.34 (0.08) 2.40 (2.31) 7.27 

Other Forecasting Options for Caisse Regionale

For every potential investor in Caisse, whether a beginner or expert, Caisse Regionale's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Caisse Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Caisse. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Caisse Regionale's price trends.

Caisse Regionale Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Caisse Regionale stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Caisse Regionale could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Caisse Regionale by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Caisse Regionale Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Caisse Regionale stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Caisse Regionale shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Caisse Regionale stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Caisse Regionale de entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Caisse Regionale Risk Indicators

The analysis of Caisse Regionale's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Caisse Regionale's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting caisse stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Caisse Regionale

The number of cover stories for Caisse Regionale depends on current market conditions and Caisse Regionale's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Caisse Regionale is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Caisse Regionale's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Caisse Regionale Short Properties

Caisse Regionale's future price predictability will typically decrease when Caisse Regionale's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Caisse Regionale de often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Caisse Regionale's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Caisse Regionale's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares OutstandingM
Cash And Short Term Investments551.2 M

Other Information on Investing in Caisse Stock

Caisse Regionale financial ratios help investors to determine whether Caisse Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Caisse with respect to the benefits of owning Caisse Regionale security.