Citizens Financial Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

CIWV Stock  USD 33.05  0.23  0.69%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Citizens Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 32.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.39. Citizens Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Citizens Financial's share price is at 50 suggesting that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Citizens Financial, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 50

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Citizens Financial's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Citizens Financial and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Citizens Financial's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Citizens Financial Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Citizens Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Citizens Financial Corp from the perspective of Citizens Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Citizens Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 32.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.39.

Citizens Financial after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 33.05  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Citizens Financial to cross-verify your projections.

Citizens Financial Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Citizens price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Citizens using various technical indicators. When you analyze Citizens charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Citizens Financial is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Citizens Financial Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Citizens Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Citizens Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 32.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.39.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Citizens Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Citizens Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Citizens Financial Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Citizens Financial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Citizens Financial's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Citizens Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.76 and 33.83, respectively. We have considered Citizens Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
33.05
32.80
Expected Value
33.83
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Citizens Financial pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Citizens Financial pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.9658
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2359
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0072
SAESum of the absolute errors14.3893
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Citizens Financial Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Citizens Financial. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Citizens Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Citizens Financial Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Citizens Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
32.0133.0534.09
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
31.7932.8333.87
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
32.0332.7933.54
Details

Citizens Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Citizens Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Citizens Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Citizens Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Citizens Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Citizens Financial's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Citizens Financial's historical news coverage. Citizens Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 32.01 and 34.09, respectively. We have considered Citizens Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
33.05
33.05
After-hype Price
34.09
Upside
Citizens Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Citizens Financial Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Citizens Financial Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Citizens Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Citizens Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Citizens Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.02 
1.04
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
33.05
33.05
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Citizens Financial Hype Timeline

Citizens Financial Corp is currently traded for 33.05. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Citizens is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Citizens Financial is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 33.05. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.25. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Citizens Financial Corp last dividend was issued on the 19th of January 2023. The entity had 3:1 split on the 17th of April 2006. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Citizens Financial to cross-verify your projections.

Citizens Financial Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Citizens Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Citizens Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Citizens Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Citizens Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
SVBTSVB T Corp 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.15  2.42 (0.42) 6.00 
KEFIKeweenaw Financial 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
SLRKSolera National Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 1.38  0.13  5.15 (3.07) 16.42 
FRSBFirst Resource Bank 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.14  2.51 (0.54) 5.49 
BSFOBank of San 0.00 0 per month 1.26  0.11  4.79 (1.64) 15.38 
MNMBMerchants Marine Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.08) 1.68 (1.91) 11.78 
FBTTFirst Bankers Trustshares 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.26  2.59 (0.92) 8.38 
KSBIKS Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 0.26  0.02  1.29 (0.88) 5.19 
BSPABallston Spa Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.11) 0.46 (0.46) 14.71 
PGNNParagon Financial Solutions 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.13) 0.82 (0.08) 2.60 

Other Forecasting Options for Citizens Financial

For every potential investor in Citizens, whether a beginner or expert, Citizens Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Citizens Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Citizens. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Citizens Financial's price trends.

Citizens Financial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Citizens Financial pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Citizens Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Citizens Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Citizens Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Citizens Financial pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Citizens Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Citizens Financial pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Citizens Financial Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Citizens Financial Risk Indicators

The analysis of Citizens Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Citizens Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting citizens pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Citizens Financial

The number of cover stories for Citizens Financial depends on current market conditions and Citizens Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Citizens Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Citizens Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Additional Tools for Citizens Pink Sheet Analysis

When running Citizens Financial's price analysis, check to measure Citizens Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Citizens Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Citizens Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Citizens Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Citizens Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Citizens Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.