GOME Retail Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

CKS2 Stock   0  0.00  0.00%   
GOME Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of RSI of GOME Retail's share price is at 54 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling GOME Retail, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 54

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of GOME Retail's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with GOME Retail Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting GOME Retail's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.728
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.754
Using GOME Retail hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of GOME Retail Holdings from the perspective of GOME Retail response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GOME Retail Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 0 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0001 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.01.

GOME Retail after-hype prediction price

    
  EUR 8.36E-4  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GOME Retail to cross-verify your projections.

GOME Retail Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine GOME price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for GOME using various technical indicators. When you analyze GOME charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
GOME Retail simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for GOME Retail Holdings are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as GOME Retail Holdings prices get older.

GOME Retail Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GOME Retail Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 0 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0001, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00000003, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.01.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GOME Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GOME Retail's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

GOME Retail Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest GOME Retail  GOME Retail Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

GOME Retail Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting GOME Retail's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GOME Retail's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.00001 and 35.59, respectively. We have considered GOME Retail's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0
0.00001
Downside
0
Expected Value
35.59
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GOME Retail stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GOME Retail stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria99.0657
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.0E-4
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1731
SAESum of the absolute errors0.0069
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting GOME Retail Holdings forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent GOME Retail observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for GOME Retail

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GOME Retail Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.000835.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.000835.59
Details

GOME Retail After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of GOME Retail at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in GOME Retail or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of GOME Retail, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

GOME Retail Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting GOME Retail's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on GOME Retail's historical news coverage. GOME Retail's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 35.59, respectively. We have considered GOME Retail's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
0
0.0008
After-hype Price
35.59
Upside
GOME Retail is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of GOME Retail Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.

GOME Retail Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as GOME Retail is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading GOME Retail backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with GOME Retail, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  5.08 
35.59
 0.00  
  0.42 
1 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
0
0.0008
16.45 
0.00  
Notes

GOME Retail Hype Timeline

GOME Retail Holdings is currently traded for 0on Stuttgart Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.42. GOME is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 8.36E-4. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -16.45%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 5.08%. The volatility of related hype on GOME Retail is about 42708.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of -0.42. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.15. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. GOME Retail Holdings last dividend was issued on the 31st of May 2017. The entity had 1:4 split on the 11th of January 2019. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be very soon.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GOME Retail to cross-verify your projections.

GOME Retail Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to GOME Retail's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict GOME Retail's future price movements. Getting to know how GOME Retail's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how GOME Retail may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for GOME Retail

For every potential investor in GOME, whether a beginner or expert, GOME Retail's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GOME Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GOME. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GOME Retail's price trends.

GOME Retail Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GOME Retail stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GOME Retail could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GOME Retail by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

GOME Retail Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GOME Retail stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GOME Retail shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GOME Retail stock market strength indicators, traders can identify GOME Retail Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

GOME Retail Risk Indicators

The analysis of GOME Retail's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GOME Retail's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gome stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for GOME Retail

The number of cover stories for GOME Retail depends on current market conditions and GOME Retail's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that GOME Retail is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about GOME Retail's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Additional Tools for GOME Stock Analysis

When running GOME Retail's price analysis, check to measure GOME Retail's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy GOME Retail is operating at the current time. Most of GOME Retail's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of GOME Retail's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move GOME Retail's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of GOME Retail to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.