Cumulus Media Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CMLS Stock | USD 0.73 0.01 1.35% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cumulus Media Class on the next trading day is expected to be 0.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.64. Cumulus Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Cumulus |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Cumulus Media's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1998-06-30 | Previous Quarter 53.5 M | Current Value 52.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 70.1 M |
Cumulus Media Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cumulus Media Class on the next trading day is expected to be 0.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.64.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cumulus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cumulus Media's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cumulus Media Stock Forecast Pattern
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Cumulus Media Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Cumulus Media's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cumulus Media's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 5.22, respectively. We have considered Cumulus Media's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cumulus Media stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cumulus Media stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.2189 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0432 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.038 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.6379 |
Predictive Modules for Cumulus Media
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cumulus Media Class. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Cumulus Media
For every potential investor in Cumulus, whether a beginner or expert, Cumulus Media's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cumulus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cumulus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cumulus Media's price trends.View Cumulus Media Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cumulus Media Class Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cumulus Media's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cumulus Media's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Cumulus Media Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cumulus Media stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cumulus Media shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cumulus Media stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cumulus Media Class entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Cumulus Media Risk Indicators
The analysis of Cumulus Media's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cumulus Media's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cumulus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.95 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.34 | |||
| Variance | 18.82 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for Cumulus Stock Analysis
When running Cumulus Media's price analysis, check to measure Cumulus Media's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cumulus Media is operating at the current time. Most of Cumulus Media's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cumulus Media's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cumulus Media's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cumulus Media to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.