Cumulus Media OTC Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

CMLS Stock  USD 0.1  0  1.66%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Cumulus Media Class on the next trading day is expected to be 0.1 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.61. Cumulus OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of Cumulus Media's share price is below 20 suggesting that the otc stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Cumulus Media Class stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Cumulus Media shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Cumulus Media's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Cumulus Media and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Cumulus Media's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Cumulus Media Class, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Cumulus Media based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using Cumulus Media hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cumulus Media Class from the perspective of Cumulus Media response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Cumulus Media Class on the next trading day is expected to be 0.1 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.61.

Cumulus Media after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 0.1  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cumulus Media to cross-verify your projections.

Cumulus Media Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Cumulus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cumulus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cumulus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A two period moving average forecast for Cumulus Media is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Cumulus Media Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Cumulus Media Class on the next trading day is expected to be 0.1 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0002, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.61.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cumulus OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cumulus Media's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Cumulus Media OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Cumulus MediaCumulus Media Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Cumulus Media Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Cumulus Media's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cumulus Media's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.001 and 15.32, respectively. We have considered Cumulus Media's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.1
0.1
Expected Value
15.32
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cumulus Media otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cumulus Media otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria107.7777
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0011
MADMean absolute deviation0.0102
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1007
SAESum of the absolute errors0.6108
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Cumulus Media Class price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Cumulus Media. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Cumulus Media

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cumulus Media Class. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.010.1015.32
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.0915.31
Details

Cumulus Media After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Cumulus Media at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cumulus Media or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of Cumulus Media, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Cumulus Media Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Cumulus Media's otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cumulus Media's historical news coverage. Cumulus Media's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.01 and 15.32, respectively. We have considered Cumulus Media's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
0.1
0.10
After-hype Price
15.32
Upside
Cumulus Media is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cumulus Media Class is based on 3 months time horizon.

Cumulus Media OTC Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as Cumulus Media is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cumulus Media backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cumulus Media, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.39 
15.22
 0.00  
  0.02 
0 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
0.1
0.10
3.73 
0.00  
Notes

Cumulus Media Hype Timeline

Cumulus Media Class is currently traded for 0.1. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.02. Cumulus is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 0.1 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price appreciation on the next news is anticipated to be 3.73%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.39%. The volatility of related hype on Cumulus Media is about 28537.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.08. Cumulus Media Class currently holds 794.71 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 2.2, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cumulus Media to cross-verify your projections.

Cumulus Media Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Cumulus Media's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cumulus Media's future price movements. Getting to know how Cumulus Media's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cumulus Media may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Cumulus Media

For every potential investor in Cumulus, whether a beginner or expert, Cumulus Media's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cumulus OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cumulus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cumulus Media's price trends.

Cumulus Media Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cumulus Media otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cumulus Media could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cumulus Media by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Cumulus Media Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cumulus Media otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cumulus Media shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cumulus Media otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cumulus Media Class entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Cumulus Media Risk Indicators

The analysis of Cumulus Media's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cumulus Media's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cumulus otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Cumulus Media

The number of cover stories for Cumulus Media depends on current market conditions and Cumulus Media's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cumulus Media is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cumulus Media's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Cumulus Media Short Properties

Cumulus Media's future price predictability will typically decrease when Cumulus Media's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cumulus Media Class often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cumulus Media's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cumulus Media's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding16.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments63.8 M

Additional Tools for Cumulus OTC Stock Analysis

When running Cumulus Media's price analysis, check to measure Cumulus Media's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cumulus Media is operating at the current time. Most of Cumulus Media's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cumulus Media's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cumulus Media's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cumulus Media to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.