CMS Energy Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| CMS Stock | USD 70.97 0.72 1.00% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of CMS Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 72.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.86. CMS Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of CMS Energy's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.092 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.0131 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.5894 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.8548 | Wall Street Target Price 77.2308 |
Using CMS Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CMS Energy from the perspective of CMS Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards CMS Energy using CMS Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards CMS using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of CMS Energy's stock price.
CMS Energy Short Interest
An investor who is long CMS Energy may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about CMS Energy and may potentially protect profits, hedge CMS Energy with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 71.8056 | Short Percent 0.0453 | Short Ratio 5.9 | Shares Short Prior Month 13 M | 50 Day MA 71.6674 |
CMS Energy Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to CMS Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in CMS. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding CMS can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around CMS Energy. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
CMS Energy Implied Volatility | 0.4 |
CMS Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of CMS Energy stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if CMS Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that CMS Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when CMS Energy's options are near their expiration.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of CMS Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 72.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.86. CMS Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 71.02 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CMS Energy to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current CMS contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that CMS Energy will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.025% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With CMS Energy trading at USD 70.97, that is roughly USD 0.0177 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating CMS Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring CMS Energy options at the current volatility level of 0.4%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 CMS Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast CMS Energy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in CMS Energy's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for CMS Energy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current CMS Energy's open interest, investors have to compare it to CMS Energy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of CMS Energy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in CMS. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
CMS Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CMS price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CMS using various technical indicators. When you analyze CMS charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CMS Energy Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of CMS Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 72.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70, mean absolute percentage error of 0.85, and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.86.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CMS Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CMS Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CMS Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CMS Energy | CMS Energy Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
CMS Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CMS Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CMS Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 71.80 and 73.70, respectively. We have considered CMS Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CMS Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CMS Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.9475 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7027 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0097 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 42.863 |
Predictive Modules for CMS Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CMS Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CMS Energy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CMS Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CMS Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CMS Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CMS Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CMS Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CMS Energy's historical news coverage. CMS Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 70.07 and 71.97, respectively. We have considered CMS Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CMS Energy is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CMS Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
CMS Energy Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CMS Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CMS Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CMS Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 0.95 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 7 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
70.97 | 71.02 | 0.07 |
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CMS Energy Hype Timeline
On the 24th of January CMS Energy is traded for 70.97. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. CMS is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 71.02 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 125.0%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.06%. The volatility of related hype on CMS Energy is about 2620.69%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 70.97. The company reported the last year's revenue of 7.51 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 1 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 3.51 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CMS Energy to cross-verify your projections.CMS Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CMS Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CMS Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how CMS Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CMS Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EIX | Edison International | 0.05 | 6 per month | 1.43 | 0.02 | 1.97 | (1.80) | 6.38 | |
| EVRG | Evergy | (0.04) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.09 | (1.31) | 4.29 | |
| KEP | Korea Electric Power | 0.14 | 10 per month | 2.32 | 0.15 | 6.12 | (4.09) | 17.60 | |
| FE | FirstEnergy | 0.19 | 9 per month | 0.97 | (0.07) | 1.27 | (1.34) | 4.05 | |
| FTS | Fortis Inc | (0.13) | 9 per month | 0.60 | (0.06) | 1.26 | (1.00) | 2.88 | |
| SO | Southern Company | 0.24 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 1.10 | (1.81) | 4.07 | |
| DTE | DTE Energy | (0.04) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.32 | (1.74) | 4.73 | |
| LNT | Alliant Energy Corp | (0.70) | 15 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.19 | (1.29) | 4.27 |
Other Forecasting Options for CMS Energy
For every potential investor in CMS, whether a beginner or expert, CMS Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CMS Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CMS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CMS Energy's price trends.CMS Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CMS Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CMS Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CMS Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CMS Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CMS Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CMS Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CMS Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CMS Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
CMS Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of CMS Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CMS Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cms stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7512 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9302 | |||
| Variance | 0.8654 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CMS Energy
The number of cover stories for CMS Energy depends on current market conditions and CMS Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CMS Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CMS Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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CMS Energy Short Properties
CMS Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when CMS Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CMS Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CMS Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CMS Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 298.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 103 M |
Additional Tools for CMS Stock Analysis
When running CMS Energy's price analysis, check to measure CMS Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CMS Energy is operating at the current time. Most of CMS Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CMS Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CMS Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CMS Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.