Core Molding Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CMT Stock | USD 17.50 0.62 3.67% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Core Molding Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 17.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.28. Core Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Core |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Core Molding's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1997-03-31 | Previous Quarter 37.8 M | Current Value 42.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 9 M |
Core Molding Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Core Molding Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 17.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46, mean absolute percentage error of 0.31, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.28.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Core Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Core Molding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Core Molding Stock Forecast Pattern
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Core Molding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Core Molding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Core Molding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.87 and 19.82, respectively. We have considered Core Molding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Core Molding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Core Molding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.9437 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4637 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0278 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.284 |
Predictive Modules for Core Molding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Core Molding Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Core Molding
For every potential investor in Core, whether a beginner or expert, Core Molding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Core Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Core. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Core Molding's price trends.Core Molding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Core Molding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Core Molding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Core Molding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Core Molding Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Core Molding's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Core Molding's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Core Molding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Core Molding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Core Molding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Core Molding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Core Molding Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Core Molding Risk Indicators
The analysis of Core Molding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Core Molding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting core stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.53 | |||
| Variance | 6.42 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.88 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.6 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.11) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for Core Stock Analysis
When running Core Molding's price analysis, check to measure Core Molding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Core Molding is operating at the current time. Most of Core Molding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Core Molding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Core Molding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Core Molding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.