CNH Industrial Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CNHI Stock | EUR 11.60 0.18 1.58% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of CNH Industrial NV on the next trading day is expected to be 12.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.29. CNH Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of CNH Industrial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
CNH |
CNH Industrial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of CNH Industrial NV on the next trading day is expected to be 12.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.29.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CNH Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CNH Industrial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CNH Industrial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CNH Industrial | CNH Industrial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
CNH Industrial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CNH Industrial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CNH Industrial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.73 and 14.31, respectively. We have considered CNH Industrial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CNH Industrial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CNH Industrial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.1639 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1851 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0184 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.2923 |
Predictive Modules for CNH Industrial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CNH Industrial NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for CNH Industrial
For every potential investor in CNH, whether a beginner or expert, CNH Industrial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CNH Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CNH. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CNH Industrial's price trends.CNH Industrial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CNH Industrial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CNH Industrial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CNH Industrial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CNH Industrial NV Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CNH Industrial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CNH Industrial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CNH Industrial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CNH Industrial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CNH Industrial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CNH Industrial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CNH Industrial NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
CNH Industrial Risk Indicators
The analysis of CNH Industrial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CNH Industrial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cnh stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.29 | |||
| Variance | 5.24 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.03 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.42 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.84) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in CNH Stock
When determining whether CNH Industrial NV offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of CNH Industrial's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Cnh Industrial Nv Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Cnh Industrial Nv Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CNH Industrial to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.