Centessa Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CNTA Stock | USD 25.99 0.26 1.01% |
Centessa Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Centessa Pharmaceuticals stock prices and determine the direction of Centessa Pharmaceuticals PLC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Centessa Pharmaceuticals' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, The RSI of Centessa Pharmaceuticals' share price is at 56 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Centessa Pharmaceuticals, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.41) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.34) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.65) | Wall Street Target Price 39.2308 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.39) |
Using Centessa Pharmaceuticals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Centessa Pharmaceuticals PLC from the perspective of Centessa Pharmaceuticals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Centessa Pharmaceuticals using Centessa Pharmaceuticals' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Centessa using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Centessa Pharmaceuticals' stock price.
Centessa Pharmaceuticals Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Centessa Pharmaceuticals' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Centessa. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Centessa Pharmaceuticals stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 19.1988 | Short Percent 0.049 | Short Ratio 5.12 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.7 M | 50 Day MA 25.8944 |
Centessa Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Centessa Pharmaceuticals PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 26.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.29.Centessa Pharmaceuticals Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Centessa Pharmaceuticals' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Centessa. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Centessa can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Centessa Pharmaceuticals PLC. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Centessa Pharmaceuticals' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Centessa Pharmaceuticals.
Centessa Pharmaceuticals Implied Volatility | 1.38 |
Centessa Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Centessa Pharmaceuticals PLC stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Centessa Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Centessa Pharmaceuticals stock will not fluctuate a lot when Centessa Pharmaceuticals' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Centessa Pharmaceuticals PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 26.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.29. Centessa Pharmaceuticals after-hype prediction price | USD 25.99 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Centessa Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Centessa contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Centessa Pharmaceuticals PLC will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0862% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Centessa Pharmaceuticals trading at USD 25.99, that is roughly USD 0.0224 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Centessa Pharmaceuticals' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Centessa Pharmaceuticals PLC options at the current volatility level of 1.38%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Centessa Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Centessa Pharmaceuticals' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Centessa Pharmaceuticals' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Centessa Pharmaceuticals stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Centessa Pharmaceuticals' open interest, investors have to compare it to Centessa Pharmaceuticals' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Centessa Pharmaceuticals is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Centessa. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Centessa Pharmaceuticals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Centessa price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Centessa using various technical indicators. When you analyze Centessa charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Centessa Pharmaceuticals Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Centessa Pharmaceuticals' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2020-12-31 | Previous Quarter 44.2 M | Current Value 50.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 203.6 M |
Centessa Pharmaceuticals Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Centessa Pharmaceuticals PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 26.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75, mean absolute percentage error of 0.84, and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.29.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Centessa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Centessa Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Centessa Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Centessa Pharmaceuticals | Centessa Pharmaceuticals Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Centessa Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Centessa Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Centessa Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.09 and 30.21, respectively. We have considered Centessa Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Centessa Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Centessa Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.7714 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7467 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0297 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 46.2945 |
Predictive Modules for Centessa Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Centessa Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Centessa Pharmaceuticals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Centessa Pharmaceuticals After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Centessa Pharmaceuticals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Centessa Pharmaceuticals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Centessa Pharmaceuticals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Centessa Pharmaceuticals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Centessa Pharmaceuticals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Centessa Pharmaceuticals' historical news coverage. Centessa Pharmaceuticals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.45 and 29.53, respectively. We have considered Centessa Pharmaceuticals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Centessa Pharmaceuticals is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Centessa Pharmaceuticals is based on 3 months time horizon.
Centessa Pharmaceuticals Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Centessa Pharmaceuticals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Centessa Pharmaceuticals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Centessa Pharmaceuticals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 3.56 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
25.99 | 25.99 | 0.00 |
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Centessa Pharmaceuticals Hype Timeline
Centessa Pharmaceuticals is currently traded for 25.99. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.15, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Centessa is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.17%. %. The volatility of related hype on Centessa Pharmaceuticals is about 10787.88%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 26.00. About 87.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.89. Centessa Pharmaceuticals had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Centessa Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections.Centessa Pharmaceuticals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Centessa Pharmaceuticals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Centessa Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. Getting to know how Centessa Pharmaceuticals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Centessa Pharmaceuticals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| APGE | Apogee Therapeutics Common | 1.96 | 8 per month | 2.42 | 0.14 | 4.56 | (2.64) | 23.21 | |
| XENE | Xenon Pharmaceuticals | (0.28) | 25 per month | 1.98 | (0.02) | 3.78 | (2.71) | 10.56 | |
| AAPG | Ascentage Pharma Group | 1.02 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 5.25 | (6.36) | 16.72 | |
| RARE | Ultragenyx | (0.95) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 7.73 | (4.09) | 51.23 | |
| CELC | Celcuity LLC | 0.25 | 8 per month | 1.88 | 0.24 | 7.55 | (2.93) | 17.89 | |
| ZLAB | Zai Lab | (0.21) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.33) | 4.56 | (4.21) | 10.32 | |
| CGON | CG Oncology Common | (0.28) | 33 per month | 2.56 | 0.09 | 5.15 | (4.40) | 33.66 | |
| SLNO | Soleno Therapeutics | (2.83) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 5.19 | (4.84) | 31.78 | |
| LEGN | Legend Biotech Corp | 0.67 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 3.83 | (6.84) | 19.65 | |
| DYN | Dyne Therapeutics | 0.98 | 10 per month | 4.76 | 0.04 | 7.01 | (5.90) | 58.12 |
Other Forecasting Options for Centessa Pharmaceuticals
For every potential investor in Centessa, whether a beginner or expert, Centessa Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Centessa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Centessa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Centessa Pharmaceuticals' price trends.Centessa Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Centessa Pharmaceuticals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Centessa Pharmaceuticals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Centessa Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Centessa Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Centessa Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Centessa Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Centessa Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Centessa Pharmaceuticals PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Centessa Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Centessa Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Centessa Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting centessa stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.31 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.47 | |||
| Variance | 12.07 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.27 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.43 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.44) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Centessa Pharmaceuticals
The number of cover stories for Centessa Pharmaceuticals depends on current market conditions and Centessa Pharmaceuticals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Centessa Pharmaceuticals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Centessa Pharmaceuticals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Centessa Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
Centessa Pharmaceuticals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Centessa Pharmaceuticals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Centessa Pharmaceuticals PLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Centessa Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Centessa Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 114.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 482.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Centessa Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Centessa Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Centessa will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Centessa Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Centessa Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Centessa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Centessa Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Centessa Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Centessa Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Centessa Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Centessa Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Centessa Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Centessa Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.