51Talk Online Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

COE Stock  USD 25.23  0.12  0.48%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of 51Talk Online Education on the next trading day is expected to be 24.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.45. 51Talk Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast 51Talk Online stock prices and determine the direction of 51Talk Online Education's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of 51Talk Online's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of 51Talk Online's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of 51Talk Online's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of 51Talk Online and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from 51Talk Online's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with 51Talk Online Education, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting 51Talk Online's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.16
Wall Street Target Price
7.94
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.875
Using 51Talk Online hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of 51Talk Online Education from the perspective of 51Talk Online response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.

51Talk Online Education Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to 51Talk Online's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in 51Talk. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding 51Talk can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around 51Talk Online Education. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of 51Talk Online Education on the next trading day is expected to be 24.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.45.

51Talk Online after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 23.3  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of 51Talk Online to cross-verify your projections.

51Talk Online Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine 51Talk price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for 51Talk using various technical indicators. When you analyze 51Talk charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

51Talk Online Cash Forecast

Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the 51Talk Online's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2014-12-31
Previous Quarter
27.8 M
Current Value
33.5 M
Quarterly Volatility
61 M
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for 51Talk Online is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of 51Talk Online Education value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

51Talk Online Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of 51Talk Online Education on the next trading day is expected to be 24.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88, mean absolute percentage error of 1.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.45.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict 51Talk Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that 51Talk Online's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

51Talk Online Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest 51Talk Online51Talk Online Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

51Talk Online Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting 51Talk Online's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. 51Talk Online's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.50 and 28.18, respectively. We have considered 51Talk Online's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
25.23
24.34
Expected Value
28.18
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of 51Talk Online stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent 51Talk Online stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.3429
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.8762
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0252
SAESum of the absolute errors53.4485
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of 51Talk Online Education. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict 51Talk Online. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for 51Talk Online

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as 51Talk Online Education. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
19.4623.3027.14
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.2416.0827.75
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
23.2232.3341.44
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
7.237.948.81
Details

51Talk Online After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of 51Talk Online at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in 51Talk Online or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of 51Talk Online, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

51Talk Online Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting 51Talk Online's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on 51Talk Online's historical news coverage. 51Talk Online's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.46 and 27.14, respectively. We have considered 51Talk Online's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
25.23
23.30
After-hype Price
27.14
Upside
51Talk Online is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of 51Talk Online Education is based on 3 months time horizon.

51Talk Online Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as 51Talk Online is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading 51Talk Online backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with 51Talk Online, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  1.08 
3.84
  1.93 
  0.02 
8 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
25.23
23.30
7.65 
214.53  
Notes

51Talk Online Hype Timeline

On the 23rd of January 51Talk Online Education is traded for 25.23. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.93, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. 51Talk is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 23.3. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -7.65%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -1.08%. The volatility of related hype on 51Talk Online is about 21333.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.21. About 37.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.8. 51Talk Online Education had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:4 split on the 15th of December 2022. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of 51Talk Online to cross-verify your projections.

51Talk Online Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to 51Talk Online's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict 51Talk Online's future price movements. Getting to know how 51Talk Online's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how 51Talk Online may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
OBLGOblong Inc(0.20)9 per month 0.00 (0.03) 10.66 (11.03) 37.07 
SGNSigning Day Sports 0.05 10 per month 0.00 (0.18) 9.09 (18.52) 75.32 
JTAIJetAI Inc(0.09)8 per month 0.00 (0.34) 10.17 (17.02) 52.18 
FTFTFuture Fintech Group 0.08 8 per month 0.00 (0.32) 7.48 (11.84) 27.28 
MYSZMy Size 0.06 9 per month 0.00 (0.07) 11.39 (8.25) 26.97 
ULYUrgently Common Stock(0.03)10 per month 5.61  0.0003  15.23 (10.00) 67.64 
SOBRSobr Safe 0.22 19 per month 0.00 (0.04) 8.18 (15.31) 97.62 
GITSGlobal Interactive Technologies(0.20)10 per month 7.16  0.05  15.29 (12.50) 52.78 
BNZIBanzai International(0.06)11 per month 0.00 (0.1) 13.56 (13.33) 48.98 
TDTHTrident Digital Tech(0.01)5 per month 0.00 (0.09) 14.89 (14.63) 48.92 

Other Forecasting Options for 51Talk Online

For every potential investor in 51Talk, whether a beginner or expert, 51Talk Online's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. 51Talk Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in 51Talk. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying 51Talk Online's price trends.

51Talk Online Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with 51Talk Online stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of 51Talk Online could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing 51Talk Online by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

51Talk Online Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how 51Talk Online stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading 51Talk Online shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying 51Talk Online stock market strength indicators, traders can identify 51Talk Online Education entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

51Talk Online Risk Indicators

The analysis of 51Talk Online's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in 51Talk Online's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting 51talk stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for 51Talk Online

The number of cover stories for 51Talk Online depends on current market conditions and 51Talk Online's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that 51Talk Online is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about 51Talk Online's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

51Talk Online Short Properties

51Talk Online's future price predictability will typically decrease when 51Talk Online's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of 51Talk Online Education often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential 51Talk Online's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. 51Talk Online's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding96.4 K
Cash And Short Term Investments29.2 M
When determining whether 51Talk Online Education is a strong investment it is important to analyze 51Talk Online's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact 51Talk Online's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding 51Talk Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of 51Talk Online to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Is Diversified Consumer Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of 51Talk Online. If investors know 51Talk will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about 51Talk Online listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.16
Earnings Share
(1.80)
Revenue Per Share
13.76
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.875
Return On Assets
(0.11)
The market value of 51Talk Online Education is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of 51Talk that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of 51Talk Online's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is 51Talk Online's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because 51Talk Online's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect 51Talk Online's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between 51Talk Online's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if 51Talk Online is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, 51Talk Online's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.