Columbia Sportswear Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| COLM Stock | USD 55.28 1.15 2.12% |
Columbia Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Columbia Sportswear's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Columbia Sportswear's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Columbia Sportswear fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of Columbia Sportswear's share price is at 53 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Columbia Sportswear, making its price go up or down. Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.39) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.3802 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.0271 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.988 | Wall Street Target Price 59.3333 |
Using Columbia Sportswear hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Columbia Sportswear from the perspective of Columbia Sportswear response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Columbia Sportswear using Columbia Sportswear's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Columbia using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Columbia Sportswear's stock price.
Columbia Sportswear Short Interest
An investor who is long Columbia Sportswear may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Columbia Sportswear and may potentially protect profits, hedge Columbia Sportswear with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 57.1318 | Short Percent 0.0923 | Short Ratio 5.01 | Shares Short Prior Month 3 M | 50 Day MA 54.6192 |
Columbia Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Columbia Sportswear on the next trading day is expected to be 55.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.25.Columbia Sportswear Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Columbia Sportswear's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Columbia. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Columbia can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Columbia Sportswear. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Columbia Sportswear's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Columbia Sportswear.
Columbia Sportswear Implied Volatility | 0.55 |
Columbia Sportswear's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Columbia Sportswear stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Columbia Sportswear's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Columbia Sportswear stock will not fluctuate a lot when Columbia Sportswear's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Columbia Sportswear on the next trading day is expected to be 55.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.25. Columbia Sportswear after-hype prediction price | USD 55.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Columbia Sportswear to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Columbia contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Columbia Sportswear will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0344% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Columbia Sportswear trading at USD 55.28, that is roughly USD 0.019 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Columbia Sportswear's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Columbia Sportswear options at the current volatility level of 0.55%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Columbia Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Columbia Sportswear's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Columbia Sportswear's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Columbia Sportswear stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Columbia Sportswear's open interest, investors have to compare it to Columbia Sportswear's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Columbia Sportswear is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Columbia. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Columbia Sportswear Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Columbia price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Columbia using various technical indicators. When you analyze Columbia charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Columbia Sportswear Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Columbia Sportswear on the next trading day is expected to be 55.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86, mean absolute percentage error of 1.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.25.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Columbia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Columbia Sportswear's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Columbia Sportswear Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Columbia Sportswear | Columbia Sportswear Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Columbia Sportswear Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Columbia Sportswear's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Columbia Sportswear's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 52.95 and 57.37, respectively. We have considered Columbia Sportswear's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Columbia Sportswear stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Columbia Sportswear stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3107 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1209 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8565 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0159 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 52.2486 |
Predictive Modules for Columbia Sportswear
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Columbia Sportswear. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Columbia Sportswear After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Columbia Sportswear at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Columbia Sportswear or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Columbia Sportswear, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Columbia Sportswear Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Columbia Sportswear's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Columbia Sportswear's historical news coverage. Columbia Sportswear's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 53.54 and 57.96, respectively. We have considered Columbia Sportswear's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Columbia Sportswear is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Columbia Sportswear is based on 3 months time horizon.
Columbia Sportswear Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Columbia Sportswear is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Columbia Sportswear backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Columbia Sportswear, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 2.21 | 0.47 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
55.28 | 55.75 | 0.85 |
|
Columbia Sportswear Hype Timeline
Columbia Sportswear is currently traded for 55.28. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.47, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Columbia is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 55.75 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 88.76%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.85%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Columbia Sportswear is about 2125.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 55.30. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 3.37 B. Net Income was 223.27 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.73 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Columbia Sportswear to cross-verify your projections.Columbia Sportswear Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Columbia Sportswear's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Columbia Sportswear's future price movements. Getting to know how Columbia Sportswear's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Columbia Sportswear may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ZGN | Ermenegildo Zegna NV | 0.08 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.79 | (3.34) | 17.11 | |
| HBI | Hanesbrands | (0.43) | 2 per month | 1.49 | (0.01) | 2.38 | (2.35) | 7.22 | |
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters | (0.94) | 9 per month | 1.97 | 0.16 | 5.78 | (3.60) | 19.53 | |
| BKE | Buckle Inc | (0.35) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.73 | (3.04) | 9.51 | |
| YETI | YETI Holdings | 1.41 | 11 per month | 1.65 | 0.15 | 4.49 | (3.10) | 12.03 | |
| GEF | Greif Bros | (1.14) | 11 per month | 1.36 | 0.14 | 2.61 | (2.28) | 5.52 | |
| VSCO | Victorias Secret Co | 2.79 | 12 per month | 2.29 | 0.21 | 5.93 | (4.23) | 22.57 | |
| GRBK | Green Brick Partners | (0.34) | 8 per month | 1.56 | 0 | 4.56 | (3.08) | 10.63 | |
| PRKS | United Parks Resorts | (0.09) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.60 | (5.35) | 28.36 | |
| UAA | Under Armour A | 0.05 | 11 per month | 2.23 | 0.12 | 4.98 | (4.11) | 13.53 |
Other Forecasting Options for Columbia Sportswear
For every potential investor in Columbia, whether a beginner or expert, Columbia Sportswear's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Columbia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Columbia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Columbia Sportswear's price trends.Columbia Sportswear Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Columbia Sportswear stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Columbia Sportswear could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Columbia Sportswear by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Columbia Sportswear Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Columbia Sportswear stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Columbia Sportswear shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Columbia Sportswear stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Columbia Sportswear entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Columbia Sportswear Risk Indicators
The analysis of Columbia Sportswear's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Columbia Sportswear's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting columbia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.8 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.24 | |||
| Variance | 5.04 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.83 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.58 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.09) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Columbia Sportswear
The number of cover stories for Columbia Sportswear depends on current market conditions and Columbia Sportswear's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Columbia Sportswear is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Columbia Sportswear's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Columbia Sportswear Short Properties
Columbia Sportswear's future price predictability will typically decrease when Columbia Sportswear's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Columbia Sportswear often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Columbia Sportswear's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Columbia Sportswear's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 58.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 815.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Columbia Sportswear to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Columbia Stock, please use our How to Invest in Columbia Sportswear guide.You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Will Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods sector continue expanding? Could Columbia diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Columbia Sportswear. Projected growth potential of Columbia fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Columbia Sportswear data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.39) | Dividend Share 1.2 | Earnings Share 3.31 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.013 |
The market value of Columbia Sportswear is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Columbia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Columbia Sportswear's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Columbia Sportswear's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Columbia Sportswear's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Columbia Sportswear's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Columbia Sportswear's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Columbia Sportswear should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Columbia Sportswear's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.