COSMO Pharmaceuticals Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| COPN Stock | CHF 120.60 2.00 1.63% |
COSMO Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of COSMO Pharmaceuticals' stock price is slightly above 62 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling COSMO, making its price go up or down. Momentum 62
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 50.142 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.1767 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.0467 | Wall Street Target Price 87.1823 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.52 |
Using COSMO Pharmaceuticals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of COSMO Pharmaceuticals SA from the perspective of COSMO Pharmaceuticals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of COSMO Pharmaceuticals SA on the next trading day is expected to be 120.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 144.90. COSMO Pharmaceuticals after-hype prediction price | CHF 123.05 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
COSMO |
COSMO Pharmaceuticals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine COSMO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for COSMO using various technical indicators. When you analyze COSMO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
COSMO Pharmaceuticals Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of COSMO Pharmaceuticals SA on the next trading day is expected to be 120.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.41, mean absolute percentage error of 14.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 144.90.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict COSMO Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that COSMO Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
COSMO Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest COSMO Pharmaceuticals | COSMO Pharmaceuticals Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
COSMO Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting COSMO Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. COSMO Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 116.34 and 124.86, respectively. We have considered COSMO Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of COSMO Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent COSMO Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.9264 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.9083 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.415 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0242 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 144.9 |
Predictive Modules for COSMO Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as COSMO Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.COSMO Pharmaceuticals After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of COSMO Pharmaceuticals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in COSMO Pharmaceuticals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of COSMO Pharmaceuticals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
COSMO Pharmaceuticals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting COSMO Pharmaceuticals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on COSMO Pharmaceuticals' historical news coverage. COSMO Pharmaceuticals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 118.77 and 127.33, respectively. We have considered COSMO Pharmaceuticals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
COSMO Pharmaceuticals is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of COSMO Pharmaceuticals is based on 3 months time horizon.
COSMO Pharmaceuticals Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as COSMO Pharmaceuticals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading COSMO Pharmaceuticals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with COSMO Pharmaceuticals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.08 | 4.26 | 1.30 | 0.19 | 2 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
120.60 | 123.05 | 0.37 |
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COSMO Pharmaceuticals Hype Timeline
COSMO Pharmaceuticals is currently traded for 120.60on SIX Swiss Exchange of Switzerland. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.3, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.19. COSMO is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 123.05 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price increase on the next news is anticipated to be 0.37%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 1.08%. The volatility of related hype on COSMO Pharmaceuticals is about 2462.43%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 120.79. The company reported the revenue of 266.79 M. Net Income was 153.37 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 134.49 M. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of COSMO Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections.COSMO Pharmaceuticals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to COSMO Pharmaceuticals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict COSMO Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. Getting to know how COSMO Pharmaceuticals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how COSMO Pharmaceuticals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AEVS | Aevis Victoria SA | 0.20 | 3 per month | 2.06 | 0.03 | 2.61 | (1.53) | 13.83 | |
| SKAN | SKAN Group AG | (3.50) | 2 per month | 1.97 | 0.04 | 3.66 | (3.51) | 9.24 | |
| MED | Medartis Holding AG | 1.40 | 4 per month | 1.75 | 0.12 | 4.07 | (3.71) | 9.13 | |
| PPGN | PolyPeptide Group AG | 0.55 | 4 per month | 2.64 | 0.06 | 6.03 | (5.18) | 15.85 | |
| KURN | Kuros Biosciences AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.31 | (0.01) | 5.47 | (4.78) | 14.60 | |
| IDIA | Idorsia | (0.02) | 7 per month | 3.37 | 0.08 | 8.57 | (6.39) | 22.30 | |
| BSLN | Basilea Pharmaceutica AG | (1.40) | 4 per month | 1.57 | 0.1 | 3.10 | (2.35) | 10.08 | |
| VBSN | IVF Hartmann Holding | 3.00 | 1 per month | 1.25 | 0.01 | 2.76 | (2.36) | 6.35 | |
| CLTN | Coltene Holding AG | 0.60 | 4 per month | 1.82 | 0.12 | 3.78 | (2.64) | 11.71 | |
| TECN | Tecan Group AG | 0.90 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.47 | (3.61) | 12.91 |
Other Forecasting Options for COSMO Pharmaceuticals
For every potential investor in COSMO, whether a beginner or expert, COSMO Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. COSMO Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in COSMO. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying COSMO Pharmaceuticals' price trends.COSMO Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with COSMO Pharmaceuticals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of COSMO Pharmaceuticals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing COSMO Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
COSMO Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how COSMO Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading COSMO Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying COSMO Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify COSMO Pharmaceuticals SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1557.17 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.50) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 122.2 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 121.67 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.60) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.00) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 62.66 |
COSMO Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
The analysis of COSMO Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in COSMO Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cosmo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.5 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.06 | |||
| Variance | 16.48 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.07 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.71 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.19) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for COSMO Pharmaceuticals
The number of cover stories for COSMO Pharmaceuticals depends on current market conditions and COSMO Pharmaceuticals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that COSMO Pharmaceuticals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about COSMO Pharmaceuticals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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COSMO Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
COSMO Pharmaceuticals' future price predictability will typically decrease when COSMO Pharmaceuticals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of COSMO Pharmaceuticals SA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential COSMO Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. COSMO Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 143 M |
Additional Tools for COSMO Stock Analysis
When running COSMO Pharmaceuticals' price analysis, check to measure COSMO Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy COSMO Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of COSMO Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of COSMO Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move COSMO Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of COSMO Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.