Cosmos Health Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| COSM Stock | USD 0.47 0.01 2.17% |
Cosmos Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Cosmos Health's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Cosmos Health's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Cosmos Health fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Cosmos Health's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Year (0.34) | Wall Street Target Price 4.5 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.09) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.379 |
Using Cosmos Health hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cosmos Health from the perspective of Cosmos Health response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Cosmos Health using Cosmos Health's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Cosmos using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Cosmos Health's stock price.
Cosmos Health Implied Volatility | 0.34 |
Cosmos Health's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Cosmos Health stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Cosmos Health's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Cosmos Health stock will not fluctuate a lot when Cosmos Health's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cosmos Health on the next trading day is expected to be 0.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.22. Cosmos Health after-hype prediction price | USD 0.46 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cosmos Health to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Cosmos contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Cosmos Health will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0213% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Cosmos Health trading at USD 0.47, that is roughly USD 1.0E-4 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Cosmos Health's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Cosmos Health options at the current volatility level of 0.34%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Cosmos Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Cosmos Health's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Cosmos Health's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Cosmos Health stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Cosmos Health's open interest, investors have to compare it to Cosmos Health's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Cosmos Health is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Cosmos. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Cosmos Health Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cosmos price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cosmos using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cosmos charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Cosmos Health Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cosmos Health on the next trading day is expected to be 0.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0009, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.22.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cosmos Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cosmos Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cosmos Health Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Cosmos Health | Cosmos Health Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Cosmos Health Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Cosmos Health's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cosmos Health's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 6.09, respectively. We have considered Cosmos Health's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cosmos Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cosmos Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.0431 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0033 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.02 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0372 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.22 |
Predictive Modules for Cosmos Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cosmos Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cosmos Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cosmos Health After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cosmos Health at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cosmos Health or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cosmos Health, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cosmos Health Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cosmos Health's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cosmos Health's historical news coverage. Cosmos Health's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.02 and 6.05, respectively. We have considered Cosmos Health's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cosmos Health is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cosmos Health is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cosmos Health Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cosmos Health is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cosmos Health backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cosmos Health, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.49 | 5.62 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.47 | 0.46 | 2.13 |
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Cosmos Health Hype Timeline
Cosmos Health is currently traded for 0.47. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Cosmos is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 0.46. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -2.13%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.49%. The volatility of related hype on Cosmos Health is about 70250.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.47. About 27.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.75. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Cosmos Health recorded a loss per share of 0.77. The entity last dividend was issued on the 21st of November 2017. The firm had 1:10 split on the 21st of November 2017. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cosmos Health to cross-verify your projections.Cosmos Health Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cosmos Health's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cosmos Health's future price movements. Getting to know how Cosmos Health's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cosmos Health may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FEMY | Femasys | (0.03) | 9 per month | 6.34 | (0.01) | 15.00 | (11.11) | 47.42 | |
| SCYX | Scynexis | 0.01 | 5 per month | 2.19 | 0.02 | 5.08 | (4.35) | 21.87 | |
| CLSD | Clearside Biomedical | 0.36 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 7.96 | (17.54) | 83.67 | |
| LSTA | Lisata Therapeutics | 0.04 | 9 per month | 2.76 | 0.11 | 5.58 | (5.26) | 88.09 | |
| NXGL | Nexgel Inc | 0.27 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 12.42 | (9.24) | 35.89 | |
| MTVA | MetaVia | (0.40) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 11.60 | (20.10) | 79.95 | |
| PASG | Passage Bio | 0.19 | 7 per month | 6.35 | 0.1 | 14.59 | (9.77) | 58.13 | |
| CASI | CASI Pharmaceuticals | (0.07) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 5.88 | (7.59) | 32.11 | |
| NCNA | NuCana PLC | (0.22) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 6.97 | (7.87) | 16.72 | |
| IINN | Inspira Technologies Oxy | (0.07) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 6.86 | (6.96) | 24.08 |
Other Forecasting Options for Cosmos Health
For every potential investor in Cosmos, whether a beginner or expert, Cosmos Health's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cosmos Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cosmos. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cosmos Health's price trends.Cosmos Health Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cosmos Health stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cosmos Health could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cosmos Health by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cosmos Health Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cosmos Health stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cosmos Health shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cosmos Health stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cosmos Health entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 93054.7 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.2 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.48 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.47 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.01 |
Cosmos Health Risk Indicators
The analysis of Cosmos Health's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cosmos Health's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cosmos stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.9 | |||
| Variance | 34.77 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Cosmos Health
The number of cover stories for Cosmos Health depends on current market conditions and Cosmos Health's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cosmos Health is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cosmos Health's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Cosmos Health Short Properties
Cosmos Health's future price predictability will typically decrease when Cosmos Health's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cosmos Health often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cosmos Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cosmos Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 336.3 K |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cosmos Health to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Cosmos Stock, please use our How to Invest in Cosmos Health guide.You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Will Health Care Providers & Services sector continue expanding? Could Cosmos diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cosmos Health. Projected growth potential of Cosmos fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Cosmos Health data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share (0.77) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.379 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Investors evaluate Cosmos Health using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Cosmos Health's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Cosmos Health's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Cosmos Health's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Cosmos Health should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Cosmos Health's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.