Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CPRX Stock | USD 24.13 0.75 3.21% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Catalyst Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 24.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.83. Catalyst Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The RSI of Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' share price is at 58 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.2 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.4512 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.5417 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.5874 | Wall Street Target Price 34.8571 |
Using Catalyst Pharmaceuticals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Catalyst Pharmaceuticals from the perspective of Catalyst Pharmaceuticals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Catalyst Pharmaceuticals using Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Catalyst using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' stock price.
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Short Interest
An investor who is long Catalyst Pharmaceuticals may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Catalyst Pharmaceuticals and may potentially protect profits, hedge Catalyst Pharmaceuticals with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 22.157 | Short Percent 0.0876 | Short Ratio 6.76 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.9 M | 50 Day MA 23.1826 |
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Catalyst. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Catalyst can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Catalyst Pharmaceuticals. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Implied Volatility | 1.19 |
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Catalyst Pharmaceuticals stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Catalyst Pharmaceuticals stock will not fluctuate a lot when Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Catalyst Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 24.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.83. Catalyst Pharmaceuticals after-hype prediction price | USD 24.13 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Catalyst Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Catalyst contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Catalyst Pharmaceuticals will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0744% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Catalyst Pharmaceuticals trading at USD 24.13, that is roughly USD 0.0179 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Catalyst Pharmaceuticals options at the current volatility level of 1.19%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Catalyst Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Catalyst Pharmaceuticals stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' open interest, investors have to compare it to Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Catalyst Pharmaceuticals is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Catalyst. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Catalyst price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Catalyst using various technical indicators. When you analyze Catalyst charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2004-12-31 | Previous Quarter 652.8 M | Current Value 689.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 151.7 M |
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Catalyst Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 24.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41, mean absolute percentage error of 0.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.83.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Catalyst Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Catalyst Pharmaceuticals | Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.43 and 26.15, respectively. We have considered Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Catalyst Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Catalyst Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.6808 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4071 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0178 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.8305 |
Predictive Modules for Catalyst Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Catalyst Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Catalyst Pharmaceuticals After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Catalyst Pharmaceuticals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Catalyst Pharmaceuticals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' historical news coverage. Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.27 and 25.99, respectively. We have considered Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Catalyst Pharmaceuticals is based on 3 months time horizon.
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Catalyst Pharmaceuticals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Catalyst Pharmaceuticals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 1.86 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
24.13 | 24.13 | 0.00 |
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Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Hype Timeline
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals is currently traded for 24.13. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. Catalyst is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.22%. %. The volatility of related hype on Catalyst Pharmaceuticals is about 688.89%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.07. About 87.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Catalyst Pharmaceuticals was currently reported as 7.47. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Catalyst Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections.Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. Getting to know how Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Catalyst Pharmaceuticals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MLYS | Mineralys Therapeutics Common | (1.40) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 5.87 | (6.28) | 24.81 | |
| CDTX | Cidara Therapeutics | 0.14 | 17 per month | 1.30 | 0.13 | 5.93 | (4.54) | 105.72 | |
| APLS | Apellis Pharmaceuticals | (1.26) | 19 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.72 | (4.69) | 41.41 | |
| BEAM | Beam Therapeutics | (0.52) | 11 per month | 3.25 | 0.08 | 10.09 | (6.28) | 31.78 | |
| ADPT | Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp | 0.14 | 9 per month | 3.94 | 0.01 | 9.94 | (5.62) | 29.55 | |
| SRRK | Scholar Rock Holding | (0.32) | 10 per month | 2.02 | 0.19 | 5.92 | (3.48) | 30.20 | |
| IDYA | Ideaya Biosciences | 0.07 | 11 per month | 1.98 | 0.09 | 4.86 | (3.68) | 15.68 | |
| RXRX | Recursion Pharmaceuticals | 0.03 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 7.87 | (6.85) | 22.53 | |
| KNSA | Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals | 0.14 | 9 per month | 2.05 | 0.01 | 3.93 | (3.74) | 10.42 | |
| AGIO | Agios Pharm | 0.28 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.99 | (3.94) | 56.88 |
Other Forecasting Options for Catalyst Pharmaceuticals
For every potential investor in Catalyst, whether a beginner or expert, Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Catalyst Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Catalyst. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' price trends.Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Catalyst Pharmaceuticals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Catalyst Pharmaceuticals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Catalyst Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Catalyst Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Catalyst Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Catalyst Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Catalyst Pharmaceuticals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting catalyst stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Variance | 3.42 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.62 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.97 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.57) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Catalyst Pharmaceuticals
The number of cover stories for Catalyst Pharmaceuticals depends on current market conditions and Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Catalyst Pharmaceuticals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Catalyst Pharmaceuticals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 124.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 517.6 M |
Additional Tools for Catalyst Stock Analysis
When running Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' price analysis, check to measure Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Catalyst Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Catalyst Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.