Central Retail Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

CRC Stock  THB 34.00  0.50  1.45%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Central Retail on the next trading day is expected to be 34.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.50. Central Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Central Retail simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Central Retail are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Central Retail prices get older.

Central Retail Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Central Retail on the next trading day is expected to be 34.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53, mean absolute percentage error of 0.51, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.50.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Central Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Central Retail's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Central Retail Stock Forecast Pattern

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Central Retail Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Central Retail's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Central Retail's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.74 and 36.26, respectively. We have considered Central Retail's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
34.00
34.00
Expected Value
36.26
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Central Retail stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Central Retail stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.4456
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.082
MADMean absolute deviation0.5328
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0165
SAESum of the absolute errors32.5
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Central Retail forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Central Retail observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Central Retail

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Central Retail. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
31.7734.0036.23
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
25.4927.7237.40
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
30.4733.0535.63
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Central Retail

For every potential investor in Central, whether a beginner or expert, Central Retail's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Central Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Central. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Central Retail's price trends.

Central Retail Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Central Retail stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Central Retail could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Central Retail by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Central Retail Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Central Retail's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Central Retail's current price.

Central Retail Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Central Retail stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Central Retail shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Central Retail stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Central Retail entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Central Retail Risk Indicators

The analysis of Central Retail's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Central Retail's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting central stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Central Stock

Central Retail financial ratios help investors to determine whether Central Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Central with respect to the benefits of owning Central Retail security.