Crowdstrike Holdings Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CRWD Stock | USD 452.49 1.28 0.28% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Crowdstrike Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 452.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 456.49. Crowdstrike Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Crowdstrike Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of Crowdstrike Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Crowdstrike Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength indicator of Crowdstrike Holdings' share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.333 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.7177 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.8337 | Wall Street Target Price 554.3415 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.9413 |
Using Crowdstrike Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Crowdstrike Holdings from the perspective of Crowdstrike Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Crowdstrike Holdings using Crowdstrike Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Crowdstrike using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Crowdstrike Holdings' stock price.
Crowdstrike Holdings Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Crowdstrike Holdings' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Crowdstrike. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Crowdstrike Holdings stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 467.3518 | Short Percent 0.027 | Short Ratio 2.81 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.5 M | 50 Day MA 494.3692 |
Crowdstrike Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Crowdstrike Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Crowdstrike. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Crowdstrike can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Crowdstrike Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Crowdstrike Holdings Implied Volatility | 0.43 |
Crowdstrike Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Crowdstrike Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Crowdstrike Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Crowdstrike Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when Crowdstrike Holdings' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Crowdstrike Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 452.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 456.49. Crowdstrike Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 452.49 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Crowdstrike contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Crowdstrike Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0269% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Crowdstrike Holdings trading at USD 452.49, that is roughly USD 0.12 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Crowdstrike Holdings' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Crowdstrike Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.43%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Crowdstrike Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Crowdstrike Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Crowdstrike Holdings' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Crowdstrike Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Crowdstrike Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to Crowdstrike Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Crowdstrike Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Crowdstrike. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Crowdstrike Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Crowdstrike price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Crowdstrike using various technical indicators. When you analyze Crowdstrike charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Crowdstrike Holdings Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Crowdstrike Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 452.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.48, mean absolute percentage error of 90.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 456.49.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Crowdstrike Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Crowdstrike Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Crowdstrike Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Crowdstrike Holdings | Crowdstrike Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Crowdstrike Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Crowdstrike Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Crowdstrike Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 450.61 and 454.37, respectively. We have considered Crowdstrike Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Crowdstrike Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Crowdstrike Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.6141 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 1.2657 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 7.4834 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.015 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 456.49 |
Predictive Modules for Crowdstrike Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Crowdstrike Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Crowdstrike Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Crowdstrike Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Crowdstrike Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Crowdstrike Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Crowdstrike Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Crowdstrike Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Crowdstrike Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Crowdstrike Holdings' historical news coverage. Crowdstrike Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 450.61 and 454.37, respectively. We have considered Crowdstrike Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Crowdstrike Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Crowdstrike Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Crowdstrike Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Crowdstrike Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Crowdstrike Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Crowdstrike Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 1.88 | 0.01 | 1.43 | 12 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
452.49 | 452.49 | 0.00 |
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Crowdstrike Holdings Hype Timeline
Crowdstrike Holdings is currently traded for 452.49. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 1.43. Crowdstrike is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on Crowdstrike Holdings is about 31.51%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 453.92. About 75.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.27. Crowdstrike Holdings had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Crowdstrike Holdings to cross-verify your projections.Crowdstrike Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Crowdstrike Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Crowdstrike Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Crowdstrike Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Crowdstrike Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ADBE | Adobe Systems Incorporated | (0.33) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.13 | (2.62) | 10.74 | |
| PANW | Palo Alto Networks | (0.37) | 28 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.00 | (2.62) | 9.42 | |
| TXN | Texas Instruments Incorporated | (5.81) | 8 per month | 1.56 | 0.05 | 3.96 | (2.72) | 11.75 | |
| NET | Cloudflare | (5.87) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.32 | (4.20) | 21.66 | |
| ACN | Accenture plc | (0.16) | 8 per month | 1.43 | 0.09 | 4.24 | (2.61) | 9.31 | |
| SNPS | Synopsys | 1.16 | 4 per month | 2.10 | 0.05 | 3.78 | (3.17) | 9.95 | |
| ADI | Analog Devices | 35.59 | 3 per month | 1.27 | 0.15 | 3.16 | (2.35) | 7.99 | |
| KLAC | KLA Tencor | 35.59 | 10 per month | 2.17 | 0.16 | 4.89 | (4.19) | 12.91 | |
| FTNT | Fortinet | (0.06) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.47 | (2.63) | 8.99 | |
| CRWV | CoreWeave Class A | (0.08) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 8.05 | (8.30) | 28.57 |
Other Forecasting Options for Crowdstrike Holdings
For every potential investor in Crowdstrike, whether a beginner or expert, Crowdstrike Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Crowdstrike Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Crowdstrike. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Crowdstrike Holdings' price trends.Crowdstrike Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Crowdstrike Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Crowdstrike Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Crowdstrike Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Crowdstrike Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Crowdstrike Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Crowdstrike Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Crowdstrike Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Crowdstrike Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 36415.26 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.14) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 454.14 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 453.59 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.29) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.28) |
Crowdstrike Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Crowdstrike Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Crowdstrike Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting crowdstrike stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Variance | 3.63 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Crowdstrike Holdings
The number of cover stories for Crowdstrike Holdings depends on current market conditions and Crowdstrike Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Crowdstrike Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Crowdstrike Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Crowdstrike Holdings Short Properties
Crowdstrike Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Crowdstrike Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Crowdstrike Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Crowdstrike Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Crowdstrike Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 244.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.3 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Crowdstrike Holdings to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Crowdstrike Stock refer to our How to Trade Crowdstrike Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Crowdstrike Holdings. If investors know Crowdstrike will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Crowdstrike Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.333 | Earnings Share (1.27) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.222 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Crowdstrike Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Crowdstrike that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Crowdstrike Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Crowdstrike Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Crowdstrike Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Crowdstrike Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Crowdstrike Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Crowdstrike Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Crowdstrike Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.