Crescent Star Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| CSIL Stock | 6.78 0.36 5.04% |
Crescent Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Crescent Star stock prices and determine the direction of Crescent Star Insurance's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Crescent Star's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of today, the value of RSI of Crescent Star's share price is approaching 45 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Crescent Star, making its price go up or down. Momentum 45
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Crescent Star hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Crescent Star Insurance from the perspective of Crescent Star response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Crescent Star Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 6.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.87. Crescent Star after-hype prediction price | PKR 6.78 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Crescent |
Crescent Star Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Crescent price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Crescent using various technical indicators. When you analyze Crescent charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Crescent Star Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Crescent Star Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 6.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51, mean absolute percentage error of 0.68, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.87.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Crescent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Crescent Star's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Crescent Star Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Crescent Star | Crescent Star Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Crescent Star Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Crescent Star's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Crescent Star's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.07 and 14.05, respectively. We have considered Crescent Star's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Crescent Star stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Crescent Star stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.0428 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0414 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5064 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0589 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 29.875 |
Predictive Modules for Crescent Star
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Crescent Star Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Crescent Star After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Crescent Star at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Crescent Star or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Crescent Star, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Crescent Star Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Crescent Star's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Crescent Star's historical news coverage. Crescent Star's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.34 and 14.02, respectively. We have considered Crescent Star's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Crescent Star is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Crescent Star Insurance is based on 3 months time horizon.
Crescent Star Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Crescent Star is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Crescent Star backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Crescent Star, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.62 | 7.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
6.78 | 6.78 | 0.00 |
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Crescent Star Hype Timeline
Crescent Star Insurance is currently traded for 6.78on Karachi Stock Exchange of Pakistan. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Crescent is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.62%. %. The volatility of related hype on Crescent Star is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.78. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Crescent Star to cross-verify your projections.Crescent Star Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Crescent Star's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Crescent Star's future price movements. Getting to know how Crescent Star's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Crescent Star may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HTL | Hi Tech Lubricants | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.37 | (0.02) | 4.12 | (3.70) | 15.05 | |
| MSCL | Metropolitan Steel Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.17 | (0) | 5.15 | (3.57) | 14.21 | |
| UNITY | Unity Foods | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.62 | (2.87) | 9.79 | |
| BBFL-CFEB | Big Bird Foods | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 2.34 | (3.18) | 9.21 | |
| FFL-CJAN | Fauji Foods | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.93 | 0.17 | 6.60 | (2.17) | 11.71 | |
| AIRLINK | Air Link Communication | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.73 | 0.05 | 3.80 | (2.54) | 16.94 | |
| TOMCL-CMAR | The Organic Meat | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.93 | 0.02 | 5.42 | (5.01) | 10.43 | |
| NATF-CJAN | National Foods | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.80 | 0.05 | 2.73 | (1.90) | 9.14 |
Other Forecasting Options for Crescent Star
For every potential investor in Crescent, whether a beginner or expert, Crescent Star's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Crescent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Crescent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Crescent Star's price trends.Crescent Star Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Crescent Star stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Crescent Star could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Crescent Star by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Crescent Star Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Crescent Star stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Crescent Star shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Crescent Star stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Crescent Star Insurance entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Crescent Star Risk Indicators
The analysis of Crescent Star's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Crescent Star's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting crescent stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.93 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.16 | |||
| Variance | 51.32 | |||
| Downside Variance | 36.9 | |||
| Semi Variance | 30.0 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.25) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Crescent Star
The number of cover stories for Crescent Star depends on current market conditions and Crescent Star's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Crescent Star is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Crescent Star's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Crescent Stock
Crescent Star financial ratios help investors to determine whether Crescent Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Crescent with respect to the benefits of owning Crescent Star security.