Constellation Software Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| CSU Stock | CAD 2,651 158.67 5.65% |
Constellation Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Constellation Software's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Constellation Software's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Constellation Software fundamentals over time.
The relative strength indicator of Constellation Software's share price is below 30 as of today suggesting that the stock is becoming oversold or undervalued. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Constellation Software, making its price go up or down. Momentum 29
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.278 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 27.2898 | EPS Estimate Current Year 96.4302 | EPS Estimate Next Year 116.6185 | Wall Street Target Price 4.7 K |
Using Constellation Software hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Constellation Software from the perspective of Constellation Software response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Constellation Software on the next trading day is expected to be 2,439 with a mean absolute deviation of 64.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4,016. Constellation Software after-hype prediction price | CAD 2651.31 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Constellation |
Constellation Software Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Constellation price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Constellation using various technical indicators. When you analyze Constellation charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Constellation Software Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Constellation Software on the next trading day is expected to be 2,439 with a mean absolute deviation of 64.78, mean absolute percentage error of 7,048, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4,016.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Constellation Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Constellation Software's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Constellation Software Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Constellation Software | Constellation Software Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Constellation Software Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Constellation Software's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Constellation Software's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2,437 and 2,442, respectively. We have considered Constellation Software's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Constellation Software stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Constellation Software stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 128.8089 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 64.7776 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0207 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4016.2107 |
Predictive Modules for Constellation Software
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Constellation Software. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Constellation Software After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Constellation Software at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Constellation Software or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Constellation Software, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Constellation Software Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Constellation Software's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Constellation Software's historical news coverage. Constellation Software's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2,649 and 2,653, respectively. We have considered Constellation Software's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Constellation Software is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Constellation Software is based on 3 months time horizon.
Constellation Software Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Constellation Software is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Constellation Software backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Constellation Software, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.47 | 2.06 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 4 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2,651 | 2,651 | 0.00 |
|
Constellation Software Hype Timeline
Constellation Software is currently traded for 2,651on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.09. Constellation is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.47%. %. The volatility of related hype on Constellation Software is about 1038.66%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2,651. About 40.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.71. Constellation Software recorded earning per share (EPS) of 44.4. The entity last dividend was issued on the 19th of December 2025. The firm had 1:15 split on the 14th of December 2020. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Constellation Software to cross-verify your projections.Constellation Software Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Constellation Software's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Constellation Software's future price movements. Getting to know how Constellation Software's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Constellation Software may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CLS | Celestica | 0.02 | 2 per month | 4.92 | 0.05 | 7.05 | (7.27) | 27.88 | |
| OTEX | Open Text Corp | (0.02) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.37) | 1.54 | (3.90) | 7.53 | |
| IMP | Intermap Technologies Corp | 0.22 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 3.91 | (5.25) | 17.19 | |
| DSG | Descartes Systems Group | (0.11) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.95 | (3.38) | 17.91 | |
| TOI | Topicus | (0.83) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.86 | (4.60) | 15.21 | |
| LMN | Lumine Group | (0.89) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 5.52 | (6.15) | 23.78 | |
| TCS | TECSYS Inc | 0.29 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 3.14 | (4.20) | 9.69 | |
| KXS | Kinaxis | (0.46) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 2.67 | (3.69) | 9.79 | |
| IQ | AirIQ Inc | (0.01) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.52 | (5.77) | 16.99 |
Other Forecasting Options for Constellation Software
For every potential investor in Constellation, whether a beginner or expert, Constellation Software's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Constellation Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Constellation. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Constellation Software's price trends.Constellation Software Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Constellation Software stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Constellation Software could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Constellation Software by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Constellation Software Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Constellation Software stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Constellation Software shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Constellation Software stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Constellation Software entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 6015.01 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.88) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.94 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2741.63 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2711.52 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.0019 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (169.66) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (158.67) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 29.99 |
Constellation Software Risk Indicators
The analysis of Constellation Software's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Constellation Software's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting constellation stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.29 | |||
| Variance | 5.24 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Constellation Software
The number of cover stories for Constellation Software depends on current market conditions and Constellation Software's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Constellation Software is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Constellation Software's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Constellation Software Short Properties
Constellation Software's future price predictability will typically decrease when Constellation Software's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Constellation Software often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Constellation Software's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Constellation Software's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 21.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2 B |
Other Information on Investing in Constellation Stock
Constellation Software financial ratios help investors to determine whether Constellation Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Constellation with respect to the benefits of owning Constellation Software security.