Canadian Utilities Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CU Stock | CAD 43.81 0.17 0.39% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Canadian Utilities Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 43.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.47. Canadian Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Canadian Utilities' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Canadian Utilities' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Canadian Utilities fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Canadian Utilities' share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.136 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.6953 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.4174 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.5003 | Wall Street Target Price 42.7143 |
Using Canadian Utilities hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Canadian Utilities Limited from the perspective of Canadian Utilities response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Canadian Utilities Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 43.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.47. Canadian Utilities after-hype prediction price | CAD 43.81 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Canadian |
Canadian Utilities Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Canadian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Canadian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Canadian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Canadian Utilities Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Canadian Utilities Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 43.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34, mean absolute percentage error of 0.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.47.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Canadian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Canadian Utilities' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Canadian Utilities Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Canadian Utilities | Canadian Utilities Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Canadian Utilities Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Canadian Utilities' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Canadian Utilities' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.57 and 44.24, respectively. We have considered Canadian Utilities' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Canadian Utilities stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Canadian Utilities stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.5269 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3355 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0081 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.4651 |
Predictive Modules for Canadian Utilities
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Canadian Utilities. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Canadian Utilities' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Canadian Utilities After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Canadian Utilities at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Canadian Utilities or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Canadian Utilities, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Canadian Utilities Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Canadian Utilities' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Canadian Utilities' historical news coverage. Canadian Utilities' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 42.97 and 44.65, respectively. We have considered Canadian Utilities' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Canadian Utilities is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Canadian Utilities is based on 3 months time horizon.
Canadian Utilities Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Canadian Utilities is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Canadian Utilities backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Canadian Utilities, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 0.84 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 1 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
43.81 | 43.81 | 0.00 |
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Canadian Utilities Hype Timeline
Canadian Utilities is currently traded for 43.81on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. Canadian is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 110.53%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.18%. %. The volatility of related hype on Canadian Utilities is about 250.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 43.75. About 16.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Canadian Utilities was currently reported as 19.79. The company last dividend was issued on the 5th of February 2026. Canadian Utilities had 2:1 split on the 17th of June 2013. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Canadian Utilities to cross-verify your projections.Canadian Utilities Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Canadian Utilities' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Canadian Utilities' future price movements. Getting to know how Canadian Utilities' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Canadian Utilities may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BEPC | Brookfield Renewable Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.84 | (2.44) | 9.70 | |
| ACO-X | ATCO | (0.74) | 7 per month | 0.72 | 0.07 | 1.47 | (1.27) | 4.78 | |
| BIP-PE | Brookfield Infrastructure Partners | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.43 | (0.06) | 1.00 | (0.84) | 3.35 | |
| BIPC | Brookfield Infrastructure Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.22 | (0.03) | 2.15 | (2.12) | 7.62 | |
| AQN | Algonquin Power Utilities | (0.76) | 6 per month | 0.93 | 0.06 | 2.89 | (1.71) | 10.69 | |
| TA | TransAlta Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 3.24 | (5.06) | 14.79 | |
| NPI | Northland Power | (0.76) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.30 | (2.90) | 28.74 | |
| CPX | Capital Power | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.22 | (4.69) | 10.21 | |
| BEP-UN | Brookfield Renewable Partners | (0.76) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.51 | (2.36) | 10.29 |
Other Forecasting Options for Canadian Utilities
For every potential investor in Canadian, whether a beginner or expert, Canadian Utilities' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Canadian Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Canadian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Canadian Utilities' price trends.Canadian Utilities Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Canadian Utilities stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Canadian Utilities could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Canadian Utilities by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Canadian Utilities Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Canadian Utilities stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Canadian Utilities shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Canadian Utilities stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Canadian Utilities Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 7762.25 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.3148 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 43.71 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 43.74 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.19 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.17 |
Canadian Utilities Risk Indicators
The analysis of Canadian Utilities' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Canadian Utilities' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting canadian stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6106 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5046 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8446 | |||
| Variance | 0.7133 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.4936 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2546 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.70) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Canadian Utilities
The number of cover stories for Canadian Utilities depends on current market conditions and Canadian Utilities' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Canadian Utilities is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Canadian Utilities' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Canadian Utilities Short Properties
Canadian Utilities' future price predictability will typically decrease when Canadian Utilities' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Canadian Utilities Limited often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Canadian Utilities' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Canadian Utilities' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 271.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 332 M |
Other Information on Investing in Canadian Stock
Canadian Utilities financial ratios help investors to determine whether Canadian Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Canadian with respect to the benefits of owning Canadian Utilities security.