CEL SCI Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CVM Stock | USD 6.28 0.02 0.32% |
CEL Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although CEL SCI's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of CEL SCI's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of CEL SCI fundamentals over time.
As of now, The RSI of CEL SCI's share price is at 52 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling CEL SCI, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year (3.50) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.92) | Wall Street Target Price 42.5 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.63) |
Using CEL SCI hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CEL SCI Corp from the perspective of CEL SCI response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CEL SCI Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.53. CEL SCI after-hype prediction price | USD 6.28 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CEL SCI to cross-verify your projections. CEL SCI Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CEL price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CEL using various technical indicators. When you analyze CEL charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CEL SCI Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CEL SCI Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.53.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CEL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CEL SCI's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CEL SCI Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CEL SCI | CEL SCI Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
CEL SCI Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CEL SCI's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CEL SCI's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 12.53, respectively. We have considered CEL SCI's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CEL SCI stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CEL SCI stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0137 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2802 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0464 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.53 |
Predictive Modules for CEL SCI
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CEL SCI Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CEL SCI's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
CEL SCI After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CEL SCI at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CEL SCI or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CEL SCI, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CEL SCI Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CEL SCI's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CEL SCI's historical news coverage. CEL SCI's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.03 and 12.53, respectively. We have considered CEL SCI's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CEL SCI is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CEL SCI Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
CEL SCI Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CEL SCI is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CEL SCI backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CEL SCI, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 6.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
6.28 | 6.28 | 0.00 |
|
CEL SCI Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January CEL SCI Corp is traded for 6.28. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. CEL is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on CEL SCI is about 29761.9%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.28. The book value of the company was currently reported as 1.99. The company recorded a loss per share of 6.27. CEL SCI Corp last dividend was issued on the 28th of August 1996. The entity had 1:30 split on the 20th of May 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CEL SCI to cross-verify your projections.CEL SCI Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CEL SCI's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CEL SCI's future price movements. Getting to know how CEL SCI's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CEL SCI may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| INMB | INmune Bio | 0.06 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 6.82 | (7.91) | 21.68 | |
| BRNS | Barinthus Biotherapeutics plc | 0.02 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 5.71 | (9.09) | 24.01 | |
| MRSN | Mersana Therapeutics | 0.05 | 5 per month | 2.27 | 0.13 | 7.25 | (6.26) | 210.61 | |
| ALGS | Aligos Therapeutics | 0.36 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 10.16 | (8.73) | 28.43 | |
| KZR | Kezar Life Sciences | 0.01 | 9 per month | 1.04 | (0.07) | 1.46 | (1.28) | 7.79 | |
| OKUR | OnKure Therapeutics | 0.07 | 9 per month | 4.36 | (0.01) | 9.79 | (6.92) | 23.27 | |
| TPST | Tempest Therapeutics | (0.27) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 7.92 | (9.56) | 57.69 | |
| XFOR | X4 Pharmaceuticals | 0.46 | 10 per month | 3.78 | 0.06 | 9.63 | (5.21) | 36.44 | |
| FGEN | FibroGen | (1.07) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.33 | (5.28) | 28.75 | |
| PDSB | PDS Biotechnology Corp | 0.10 | 8 per month | 4.61 | 0.01 | 8.60 | (8.41) | 27.78 |
Other Forecasting Options for CEL SCI
For every potential investor in CEL, whether a beginner or expert, CEL SCI's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CEL Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CEL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CEL SCI's price trends.CEL SCI Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CEL SCI stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CEL SCI could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CEL SCI by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CEL SCI Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CEL SCI stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CEL SCI shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CEL SCI stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CEL SCI Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 6.28 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 6.28 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.02) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 52.47 |
CEL SCI Risk Indicators
The analysis of CEL SCI's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CEL SCI's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.74 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.45 | |||
| Variance | 41.63 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CEL SCI
The number of cover stories for CEL SCI depends on current market conditions and CEL SCI's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CEL SCI is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CEL SCI's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
CEL SCI Short Properties
CEL SCI's future price predictability will typically decrease when CEL SCI's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CEL SCI Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CEL SCI's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CEL SCI's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CEL SCI to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Will Biotechnology sector continue expanding? Could CEL diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CEL SCI. Projected growth potential of CEL fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every CEL SCI data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share (6.27) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.63) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Understanding CEL SCI Corp requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects CEL's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what CEL SCI's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push CEL SCI's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between CEL SCI's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding CEL SCI should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, CEL SCI's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.