Country-Wide Insurance Pink Sheet Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| CWID Stock | USD 2.15 0.15 7.50% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Country Wide Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 2.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.15. Country-Wide Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Country-Wide Insurance stock prices and determine the direction of Country Wide Insurance's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Country-Wide Insurance's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time The relative strength index (RSI) of Country-Wide Insurance's share price is above 80 suggesting that the pink sheet is significantly overbought by investors. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 100
Buy Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Country-Wide Insurance hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Country Wide Insurance from the perspective of Country-Wide Insurance response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Country Wide Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 2.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.15. Country-Wide Insurance after-hype prediction price | USD 2.15 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Country-Wide |
Country-Wide Insurance Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Country-Wide price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Country-Wide using various technical indicators. When you analyze Country-Wide charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Country-Wide Insurance Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Country Wide Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 2.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0004, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.15.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Country-Wide Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Country-Wide Insurance's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Country-Wide Insurance Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Country-Wide Insurance | Country-Wide Insurance Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Country-Wide Insurance Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Country-Wide Insurance's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Country-Wide Insurance's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.26 and 3.19, respectively. We have considered Country-Wide Insurance's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Country-Wide Insurance pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Country-Wide Insurance pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0025 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0025 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0012 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.15 |
Predictive Modules for Country-Wide Insurance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Country Wide Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Country-Wide Insurance After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Country-Wide Insurance at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Country-Wide Insurance or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Country-Wide Insurance, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Country-Wide Insurance Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Country-Wide Insurance's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Country-Wide Insurance's historical news coverage. Country-Wide Insurance's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.19 and 3.11, respectively. We have considered Country-Wide Insurance's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Country-Wide Insurance is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Country Wide Insurance is based on 3 months time horizon.
Country-Wide Insurance Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Country-Wide Insurance is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Country-Wide Insurance backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Country-Wide Insurance, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 0.97 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.15 | 2.15 | 0.00 |
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Country-Wide Insurance Hype Timeline
Country Wide Insurance is currently traded for 2.15. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.3. Country-Wide is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on Country-Wide Insurance is about 42.52%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.85. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Country-Wide Insurance to cross-verify your projections.Country-Wide Insurance Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Country-Wide Insurance's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Country-Wide Insurance's future price movements. Getting to know how Country-Wide Insurance's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Country-Wide Insurance may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BRK-A | Berkshire Hathaway | (13.40) | 27 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.34 | (1.39) | 4.45 | |
| ALIZF | Allianz SE | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.67 | 0.01 | 3.57 | (2.84) | 8.51 | |
| AXAHY | Axa SA ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.19 | (1.36) | 4.23 | |
| ZURVY | Zurich Insurance Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.16 | (0.1) | 1.29 | (1.86) | 5.14 | |
| ZFSVF | Zurich Insurance Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.36 | (0.02) | 4.10 | (4.42) | 11.14 | |
| AXAHF | AXA SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.36 | (2.44) | 7.13 | |
| AIG | American International Group | (2.57) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.22 | (2.43) | 13.58 |
Other Forecasting Options for Country-Wide Insurance
For every potential investor in Country-Wide, whether a beginner or expert, Country-Wide Insurance's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Country-Wide Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Country-Wide. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Country-Wide Insurance's price trends.Country-Wide Insurance Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Country-Wide Insurance pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Country-Wide Insurance could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Country-Wide Insurance by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Country-Wide Insurance Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Country-Wide Insurance pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Country-Wide Insurance shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Country-Wide Insurance pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Country Wide Insurance entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.08 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2.15 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2.15 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.075 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.15 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 100.0 |
Country-Wide Insurance Risk Indicators
The analysis of Country-Wide Insurance's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Country-Wide Insurance's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting country-wide pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.2238 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9232 | |||
| Variance | 0.8523 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Country-Wide Insurance
The number of cover stories for Country-Wide Insurance depends on current market conditions and Country-Wide Insurance's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Country-Wide Insurance is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Country-Wide Insurance's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Country-Wide Pink Sheet
Country-Wide Insurance financial ratios help investors to determine whether Country-Wide Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Country-Wide with respect to the benefits of owning Country-Wide Insurance security.