Community Health Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CYH Stock | USD 3.13 0.02 0.63% |
Community Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Community Health's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 10th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Community Health's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.89) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.1312 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.864 | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.36) | Wall Street Target Price 3.5857 |
Using Community Health hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Community Health Systems from the perspective of Community Health response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Community Health using Community Health's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Community using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Community Health's stock price.
Community Health Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Community Health's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Community. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Community Health stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 3.252 | Short Percent 0.0747 | Short Ratio 8.14 | Shares Short Prior Month 9.4 M | 50 Day MA 3.2742 |
Community Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Community Health Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 3.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.15.Community Health Systems Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Community Health's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Community. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Community can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Community Health Systems. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Community Health's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Community Health.
Community Health Implied Volatility | 1.83 |
Community Health's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Community Health Systems stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Community Health's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Community Health stock will not fluctuate a lot when Community Health's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Community Health Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 3.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.15. Community Health after-hype prediction price | USD 3.16 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Community | Build AI portfolio with Community Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Community contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Community Health Systems will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.11% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Community Health trading at USD 3.13, that is roughly USD 0.00358 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Community Health's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Community Health Systems options at the current volatility level of 1.83%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Community Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Community Health's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Community Health's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Community Health stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Community Health's open interest, investors have to compare it to Community Health's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Community Health is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Community. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Community Health Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Community price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Community using various technical indicators. When you analyze Community charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Community Health Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 11th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Community Health Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 3.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.15.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Community Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Community Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Community Health Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Community Health | Community Health Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Community Health Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Community Health's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Community Health's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.34 and 5.92, respectively. We have considered Community Health's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Community Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Community Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.4655 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0048 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0692 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0213 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.15 |
Predictive Modules for Community Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Community Health Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Community Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Community Health After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Community Health at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Community Health or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Community Health, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Community Health Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Community Health's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Community Health's historical news coverage. Community Health's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.37 and 5.95, respectively. We have considered Community Health's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Community Health is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Community Health Systems is based on 3 months time horizon.
Community Health Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Community Health is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Community Health backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Community Health, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 2.79 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.13 | 3.16 | 0.32 |
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Community Health Hype Timeline
On the 10th of February Community Health Systems is traded for 3.13. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Community is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 3.16 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.32%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Community Health is about 2968.09%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.14. The company reported the last year's revenue of 12.63 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (516 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 5.3 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Community Health to cross-verify your projections.Community Health Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Community Health's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Community Health's future price movements. Getting to know how Community Health's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Community Health may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CMPS | Compass Pathways Plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.82 | 0.03 | 8.25 | (5.59) | 21.95 | |
| TALK | Talkspace | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.50 | 0.06 | 4.23 | (4.72) | 13.51 | |
| SNDA | Sonida Senior Living | 0.23 | 8 per month | 0.92 | 0.09 | 3.08 | (2.09) | 8.37 | |
| AVNS | Avanos Medical | 0.08 | 9 per month | 1.38 | 0.19 | 4.79 | (3.03) | 9.85 | |
| EHAB | Enhabit | 0.03 | 7 per month | 1.50 | 0.17 | 4.81 | (2.53) | 11.79 | |
| INNV | InnovAge Holding Corp | 0.15 | 11 per month | 3.73 | 0.18 | 11.91 | (6.77) | 41.44 | |
| AUNA | Auna SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.95 | (3.62) | 23.30 | |
| VREX | Varex Imaging Corp | 0.09 | 10 per month | 2.97 | 0.08 | 3.76 | (2.67) | 17.42 | |
| TOI | Oncology Institute | (0.12) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 6.53 | (8.31) | 42.16 | |
| FDMT | 4D Molecular Therapeutics | 0.48 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 7.04 | (9.69) | 27.09 |
Other Forecasting Options for Community Health
For every potential investor in Community, whether a beginner or expert, Community Health's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Community Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Community. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Community Health's price trends.Community Health Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Community Health stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Community Health could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Community Health by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Community Health Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Community Health stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Community Health shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Community Health stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Community Health Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Community Health Risk Indicators
The analysis of Community Health's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Community Health's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting community stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.17 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.93 | |||
| Variance | 8.6 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Community Health
The number of cover stories for Community Health depends on current market conditions and Community Health's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Community Health is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Community Health's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Community Health Short Properties
Community Health's future price predictability will typically decrease when Community Health's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Community Health Systems often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Community Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Community Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 132.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 37 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Community Health to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Is there potential for Health Care Providers & Services market expansion? Will Community introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Community Health. Projected growth potential of Community fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Community Health listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.89) | Earnings Share 2.47 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0) | Return On Assets |
The market value of Community Health Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Community that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Community Health's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Community Health's true underlying value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Because Community Health's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Community Health's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Community Health's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Community Health should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Community Health's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.