National Retail Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| CZ2 Stock | 37.42 0.62 1.68% |
National Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of National Retail's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using National Retail hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of National Retail Properties from the perspective of National Retail response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of National Retail Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 35.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.91. National Retail after-hype prediction price | EUR 37.44 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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National Retail Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine National price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for National using various technical indicators. When you analyze National charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
National Retail Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 17th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of National Retail Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 35.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79, mean absolute percentage error of 0.83, and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.91.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National Retail's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
National Retail Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest National Retail | National Retail Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
National Retail Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting National Retail's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National Retail's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34.82 and 36.83, respectively. We have considered National Retail's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Retail stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Retail stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.9223 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7854 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0227 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 47.9112 |
Predictive Modules for National Retail
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Retail Prop. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Retail's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
National Retail After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of National Retail at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in National Retail or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of National Retail, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
National Retail Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting National Retail's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on National Retail's historical news coverage. National Retail's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 36.43 and 38.45, respectively. We have considered National Retail's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
National Retail is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of National Retail Prop is based on 3 months time horizon.
National Retail Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as National Retail is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading National Retail backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with National Retail, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 1.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 4 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
37.42 | 37.44 | 0.05 |
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National Retail Hype Timeline
National Retail Prop is currently traded for 37.42on Stuttgart Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. National is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 37.44 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is anticipated to be 0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.13%. The volatility of related hype on National Retail is about 4252.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 37.42. The company reported the revenue of 926.21 M. Net Income was 389.78 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Retail to cross-verify your projections.National Retail Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to National Retail's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict National Retail's future price movements. Getting to know how National Retail's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how National Retail may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 690D | Haier Smart Home | (0.02) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.45 | (1.44) | 7.63 | |
| BJI | DATANG INTL POW | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.17 | (4.00) | 16.39 | |
| TWY | Alibaba Health Information | 0.01 | 5 per month | 2.77 | 0.03 | 6.78 | (5.13) | 25.45 | |
| IA5 | INDO ACIDATAMA | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| WX7 | Corporate Office Properties | (0.20) | 6 per month | 1.13 | 0.04 | 2.54 | (2.30) | 7.92 | |
| 4IV | INVITATION HOMES DL | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.56 | (2.45) | 9.37 | |
| 47X | CENTURIA OFFICE REIT | 0.02 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.67 | (4.76) | 17.30 | |
| 44B | BOVIS HOMES GROUP | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.14 | (0.03) | 3.56 | (2.84) | 8.86 |
Other Forecasting Options for National Retail
For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Retail's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Retail's price trends.National Retail Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National Retail stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National Retail could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Retail by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
National Retail Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National Retail stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National Retail shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National Retail stock market strength indicators, traders can identify National Retail Properties entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
National Retail Risk Indicators
The analysis of National Retail's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National Retail's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting national stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7969 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7933 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.01 | |||
| Variance | 1.02 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8961 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6293 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.90) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for National Retail
The number of cover stories for National Retail depends on current market conditions and National Retail's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that National Retail is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about National Retail's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
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National Retail Short Properties
National Retail's future price predictability will typically decrease when National Retail's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of National Retail Properties often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential National Retail's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Retail's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 189.9 M | |
| Dividends Paid | -443.2 M |
Additional Tools for National Stock Analysis
When running National Retail's price analysis, check to measure National Retail's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Retail is operating at the current time. Most of National Retail's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Retail's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Retail's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Retail to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.