Dar Global Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

DAR Stock   7.40  0.30  3.90%   
Dar Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Dar Global stock prices and determine the direction of Dar Global Plc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Dar Global's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Dar Global's share price is approaching 43 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Dar Global, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 43

 Sell Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Dar Global's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Dar Global and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Dar Global's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Dar Global Plc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Dar Global's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.56)
EPS Estimate Current Year
0.5002
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.5515
Wall Street Target Price
5.9
Quarterly Revenue Growth
2.496
Using Dar Global hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Dar Global Plc from the perspective of Dar Global response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dar Global Plc on the next trading day is expected to be 7.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.08.

Dar Global after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 7.35  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dar Global to cross-verify your projections.

Dar Global Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Dar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Dar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Dar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Dar Global simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Dar Global Plc are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Dar Global Plc prices get older.

Dar Global Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dar Global Plc on the next trading day is expected to be 7.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.08.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dar Global's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Dar Global Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Dar Global  Dar Global Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Dar Global Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Dar Global's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dar Global's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.49 and 9.35, respectively. We have considered Dar Global's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
7.40
7.42
Expected Value
9.35
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dar Global stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dar Global stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.2617
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.017
MADMean absolute deviation0.0847
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0113
SAESum of the absolute errors5.0804
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Dar Global Plc forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Dar Global observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Dar Global

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dar Global Plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.427.359.28
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.326.258.18
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
4.617.5010.38
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.060.080.09
Details

Dar Global After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Dar Global at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Dar Global or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Dar Global, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Dar Global Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Dar Global's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Dar Global's historical news coverage. Dar Global's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.42 and 9.28, respectively. We have considered Dar Global's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
7.40
7.35
After-hype Price
9.28
Upside
Dar Global is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Dar Global Plc is based on 3 months time horizon.

Dar Global Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Dar Global is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Dar Global backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Dar Global, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.14 
1.93
  0.05 
  0.01 
2 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
7.40
7.35
0.68 
551.43  
Notes

Dar Global Hype Timeline

Dar Global Plc is currently traded for 7.40on London Exchange of UK. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Dar is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 7.35. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.68%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.14%. The volatility of related hype on Dar Global is about 2058.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.39. About 88.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Dar Global was currently reported as 2.75. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dar Global to cross-verify your projections.

Dar Global Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Dar Global's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Dar Global's future price movements. Getting to know how Dar Global's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Dar Global may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
INVThe Investment 0.35 9 per month 0.15  0.12  3.23 (0.39) 6.35 
MRCThe Mercantile Investment(2.24)3 per month 0.40  0.16  1.33 (0.94) 3.51 
0QJ4Napatech AS(0.30)2 per month 3.96  0.11  9.67 (6.00) 28.84 
HRIHerald Investment Trust(10.00)6 per month 0.80  0.05  1.50 (1.52) 9.26 
CNCConcurrent Technologies Plc(0.50)8 per month 1.53 (0.02) 3.69 (2.94) 10.03 
FCITFC Investment Trust 2.00 5 per month 0.50  0.02  1.04 (0.97) 2.56 
ATTAllianz Technology Trust 10.00 6 per month 1.56  0.03  2.23 (2.53) 6.51 
0NIFSMA Solar Technology(0.06)3 per month 3.38  0.02  6.65 (5.22) 20.07 

Other Forecasting Options for Dar Global

For every potential investor in Dar, whether a beginner or expert, Dar Global's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dar Global's price trends.

Dar Global Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dar Global stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dar Global could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dar Global by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Dar Global Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dar Global stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dar Global shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dar Global stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Dar Global Plc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Dar Global Risk Indicators

The analysis of Dar Global's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dar Global's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Dar Global

The number of cover stories for Dar Global depends on current market conditions and Dar Global's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Dar Global is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Dar Global's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Dar Global Short Properties

Dar Global's future price predictability will typically decrease when Dar Global's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Dar Global Plc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Dar Global's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dar Global's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding180 M
Cash And Short Term Investments413.6 M

Other Information on Investing in Dar Stock

Dar Global financial ratios help investors to determine whether Dar Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Dar with respect to the benefits of owning Dar Global security.