DBV Technologies Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| DBV Stock | EUR 3.65 0.09 2.53% |
DBV Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast DBV Technologies stock prices and determine the direction of DBV Technologies SA's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of DBV Technologies' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, The RSI of DBV Technologies' share price is at 59 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling DBV Technologies, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.09) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.92) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.33) | Wall Street Target Price 1.555 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.21) |
Using DBV Technologies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of DBV Technologies SA from the perspective of DBV Technologies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of DBV Technologies SA on the next trading day is expected to be 4.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.56. DBV Technologies after-hype prediction price | EUR 3.55 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
DBV |
DBV Technologies Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine DBV price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for DBV using various technical indicators. When you analyze DBV charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
DBV Technologies Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of DBV Technologies SA on the next trading day is expected to be 4.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DBV Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that DBV Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
DBV Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest DBV Technologies | DBV Technologies Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
DBV Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting DBV Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. DBV Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 10.11, respectively. We have considered DBV Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of DBV Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent DBV Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.986 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3043 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0951 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.5649 |
Predictive Modules for DBV Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as DBV Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.DBV Technologies After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of DBV Technologies at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in DBV Technologies or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of DBV Technologies, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
DBV Technologies Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting DBV Technologies' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on DBV Technologies' historical news coverage. DBV Technologies' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.18 and 9.62, respectively. We have considered DBV Technologies' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
DBV Technologies is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of DBV Technologies is based on 3 months time horizon.
DBV Technologies Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as DBV Technologies is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading DBV Technologies backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with DBV Technologies, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.83 | 6.07 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 7 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.65 | 3.55 | 2.74 |
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DBV Technologies Hype Timeline
DBV Technologies is currently traded for 3.65on Euronext Paris of France. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. DBV is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 3.55. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -2.74%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.83%. The volatility of related hype on DBV Technologies is about 9950.82%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.60. About 62.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.9. DBV Technologies had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of DBV Technologies to cross-verify your projections.DBV Technologies Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to DBV Technologies' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict DBV Technologies' future price movements. Getting to know how DBV Technologies' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how DBV Technologies may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IVA | Inventiva SA | (0.22) | 8 per month | 2.76 | 0.19 | 7.56 | (4.66) | 19.36 | |
| IPH | Innate Pharma | 0.02 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.01 | (2.63) | 9.43 | |
| TNG | Transgene SA | (0.01) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 4.62 | (5.10) | 25.20 | |
| ALCLS | Cellectis | (0.07) | 4 per month | 4.72 | (0.01) | 8.58 | (7.11) | 27.25 | |
| EAPI | Euroapi SAS | (0.04) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.19 | (4.15) | 26.02 | |
| GNFT | Genfit SA | (0.09) | 3 per month | 1.48 | 0.36 | 6.10 | (3.96) | 14.69 | |
| BOI | Boiron SA | 0.25 | 1 per month | 1.54 | (0.01) | 2.39 | (2.83) | 11.62 | |
| VLA | Valneva SE | 0.07 | 7 per month | 2.40 | 0.1 | 6.92 | (3.87) | 17.52 | |
| LBIRD | Lumibird SA | (0.50) | 1 per month | 1.73 | 0.03 | 4.95 | (3.40) | 9.40 | |
| ALSEN | Sensorion SA | (0.02) | 3 per month | 3.55 | (0.01) | 6.45 | (6.06) | 29.32 |
Other Forecasting Options for DBV Technologies
For every potential investor in DBV, whether a beginner or expert, DBV Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. DBV Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in DBV. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying DBV Technologies' price trends.DBV Technologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with DBV Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of DBV Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing DBV Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
DBV Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how DBV Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading DBV Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying DBV Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify DBV Technologies SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
DBV Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of DBV Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in DBV Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dbv stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.04 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.97 | |||
| Variance | 35.62 | |||
| Downside Variance | 23.71 | |||
| Semi Variance | 16.81 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.32) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for DBV Technologies
The number of cover stories for DBV Technologies depends on current market conditions and DBV Technologies' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that DBV Technologies is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about DBV Technologies' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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DBV Technologies Short Properties
DBV Technologies' future price predictability will typically decrease when DBV Technologies' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of DBV Technologies SA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential DBV Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. DBV Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 97 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 32.5 M |
Other Information on Investing in DBV Stock
DBV Technologies financial ratios help investors to determine whether DBV Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in DBV with respect to the benefits of owning DBV Technologies security.