Delcath Systems Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| DCTH Stock | USD 10.50 0.74 7.58% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Delcath Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 11.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.51. Delcath Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Delcath Systems' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Delcath |
Delcath Systems Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Delcath Systems' financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2000-06-30 | Previous Quarter 14.8 M | Current Value 8.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 12.4 M |
Delcath Systems Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Delcath Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 11.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.51.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Delcath Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Delcath Systems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Delcath Systems Stock Forecast Pattern
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Delcath Systems Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Delcath Systems' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Delcath Systems' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.62 and 14.39, respectively. We have considered Delcath Systems' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Delcath Systems stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Delcath Systems stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.5289 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3527 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0364 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.5127 |
Predictive Modules for Delcath Systems
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Delcath Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Delcath Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Delcath Systems
For every potential investor in Delcath, whether a beginner or expert, Delcath Systems' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Delcath Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Delcath. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Delcath Systems' price trends.View Delcath Systems Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Delcath Systems Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Delcath Systems' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Delcath Systems' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Delcath Systems Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Delcath Systems stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Delcath Systems shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Delcath Systems stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Delcath Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Delcath Systems Risk Indicators
The analysis of Delcath Systems' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Delcath Systems' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting delcath stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.9 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.19 | |||
| Variance | 17.55 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.35 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.18 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.30) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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When determining whether Delcath Systems offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Delcath Systems' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Delcath Systems Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Delcath Systems Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Delcath Systems to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Delcath Stock please use our How to Invest in Delcath Systems guide.You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Is Health Care Equipment & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Delcath Systems. If investors know Delcath will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Delcath Systems listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.17) | Revenue Per Share 0.505 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 14.689 | Return On Assets (0.82) | Return On Equity (4.79) |
The market value of Delcath Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Delcath that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Delcath Systems' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Delcath Systems' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Delcath Systems' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Delcath Systems' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Delcath Systems' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Delcath Systems is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Delcath Systems' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.