Diageo PLC Stock Forward View
| DEO Stock | USD 93.03 1.04 1.13% |
Diageo Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Diageo PLC's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Diageo PLC's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Diageo PLC fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Diageo PLC's share price is at 54 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Diageo PLC, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.75) | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.4772 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.6659 | Wall Street Target Price 104.8571 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.004 |
Using Diageo PLC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Diageo PLC ADR from the perspective of Diageo PLC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Diageo PLC using Diageo PLC's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Diageo using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Diageo PLC's stock price.
Diageo PLC Short Interest
An investor who is long Diageo PLC may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Diageo PLC and may potentially protect profits, hedge Diageo PLC with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 100.3295 | Short Percent 0.0044 | Short Ratio 1.38 | Shares Short Prior Month 2 M | 50 Day MA 89.073 |
Diageo Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Diageo PLC ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 92.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 91.13.Diageo PLC ADR Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Diageo PLC's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Diageo. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Diageo can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Diageo PLC ADR. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Diageo PLC's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Diageo PLC.
Diageo PLC Implied Volatility | 0.5 |
Diageo PLC's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Diageo PLC ADR stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Diageo PLC's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Diageo PLC stock will not fluctuate a lot when Diageo PLC's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Diageo PLC ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 92.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 91.13. Diageo PLC after-hype prediction price | USD 93.03 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Diageo PLC to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Diageo contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Diageo PLC ADR will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0313% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Diageo PLC trading at USD 93.03, that is roughly USD 0.0291 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Diageo PLC's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Diageo PLC ADR options at the current volatility level of 0.5%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Diageo Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Diageo PLC's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Diageo PLC's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Diageo PLC stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Diageo PLC's open interest, investors have to compare it to Diageo PLC's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Diageo PLC is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Diageo. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Diageo PLC Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Diageo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Diageo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Diageo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Diageo PLC Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Diageo PLC's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1996-12-31 | Previous Quarter 1.7 B | Current Value 2.2 B | Quarterly Volatility 687.3 M |
Diageo PLC Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Diageo PLC ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 92.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.49, mean absolute percentage error of 3.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 91.13.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Diageo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Diageo PLC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Diageo PLC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Diageo PLC | Diageo PLC Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Diageo PLC Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Diageo PLC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Diageo PLC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 90.83 and 94.84, respectively. We have considered Diageo PLC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Diageo PLC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Diageo PLC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.3459 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4939 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0166 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 91.1302 |
Predictive Modules for Diageo PLC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Diageo PLC ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Diageo PLC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Diageo PLC After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Diageo PLC at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Diageo PLC or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Diageo PLC, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Diageo PLC Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Diageo PLC's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Diageo PLC's historical news coverage. Diageo PLC's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 91.03 and 95.03, respectively. We have considered Diageo PLC's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Diageo PLC is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Diageo PLC ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.
Diageo PLC Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Diageo PLC is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Diageo PLC backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Diageo PLC, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
93.03 | 93.03 | 0.00 |
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Diageo PLC Hype Timeline
On the 3rd of February Diageo PLC ADR is traded for 93.03. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Diageo is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Diageo PLC is about 772.2%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 93.03. The book value of the company was currently reported as 4.99. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.6. Diageo PLC ADR last dividend was issued on the 17th of October 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 28th of October 1991. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Diageo PLC to cross-verify your projections.Diageo PLC Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Diageo PLC's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Diageo PLC's future price movements. Getting to know how Diageo PLC's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Diageo PLC may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CL | Colgate Palmolive | 0.71 | 7 per month | 1.11 | 0.15 | 2.09 | (2.16) | 6.59 | |
| CCEP | Coca Cola European Partners | 0.60 | 9 per month | 1.29 | (0.02) | 1.95 | (2.11) | 5.66 | |
| KR | Kroger Company | (1.43) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.55 | (2.68) | 7.52 | |
| KDP | Keurig Dr Pepper | (0.49) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.97 | (1.93) | 5.87 | |
| STZ | Constellation Brands Class | 0.06 | 10 per month | 1.17 | 0.11 | 3.59 | (2.18) | 7.49 | |
| TGT | Target | (0.25) | 6 per month | 1.81 | 0.09 | 3.13 | (3.03) | 8.54 | |
| ABEV | Ambev SA ADR | (0.02) | 8 per month | 0.92 | 0.26 | 3.04 | (1.71) | 10.33 | |
| MNST | Monster Beverage Corp | (0.18) | 11 per month | 1.05 | 0.14 | 2.16 | (1.85) | 7.15 | |
| SYY | Sysco | (0.43) | 9 per month | 0.99 | 0.04 | 2.68 | (2.10) | 11.45 | |
| KMB | Kimberly Clark | (1.16) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.17 | (1.59) | 17.56 |
Other Forecasting Options for Diageo PLC
For every potential investor in Diageo, whether a beginner or expert, Diageo PLC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Diageo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Diageo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Diageo PLC's price trends.Diageo PLC Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Diageo PLC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Diageo PLC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Diageo PLC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Diageo PLC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Diageo PLC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Diageo PLC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Diageo PLC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Diageo PLC ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Diageo PLC Risk Indicators
The analysis of Diageo PLC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Diageo PLC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting diageo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.96 | |||
| Variance | 3.86 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Diageo PLC
The number of cover stories for Diageo PLC depends on current market conditions and Diageo PLC's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Diageo PLC is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Diageo PLC's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Diageo PLC Short Properties
Diageo PLC's future price predictability will typically decrease when Diageo PLC's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Diageo PLC ADR often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Diageo PLC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Diageo PLC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 557 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.6 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Diageo PLC to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Will Distillers & Vintners sector continue expanding? Could Diageo diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Diageo PLC. Projected growth potential of Diageo fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Diageo PLC data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.75) | Dividend Share 1.035 | Earnings Share 4.31 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.004 |
Investors evaluate Diageo PLC ADR using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Diageo PLC's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Diageo PLC's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Diageo PLC's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Diageo PLC should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Diageo PLC's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.